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Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Expert Pick – August 27, 2023

DALLAS WINGS VS PHOENIX MERCURY EXPERT PICK — AUGUST 27, 2023

DALLAS WINGS VS PHOENIX MERCURY EXPERT PICK — AUGUST 27, 2023 — Greetings and salutations basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. After our earlier look at the Sparks vs Sun and Dream vs Fever, our next featured game includes the Dallas Wings (18-16) taking on the Phoenix Mercury (9-24).

Except for pride, this game has little meaning for the Phoenix Mercury. But for the Wings, it’s a different story. Considering they trail the Connecticut Sun by five games, there is no chance for them to move up. But what is important is they have just a one-game lead over the Minnesota Lynx for the fifth spot in the playoff race, which means that every game counts.

Can the Wings get back into the win column or will the Mercury play the role of spoilers? Here is a look at which team has the edge heading into this matchup and why.

The Odds

Matchup

Open

Spread

Total

Moneyline

Wings

(18-16, SU)

-8.5

-8.5

o163.5

-440

Mercury

(9-24, SU)

u164.5

+8.5

u163.5

+340

Tipoff

When: Sunday, August 27, 2023, at 6:00 PM ET

Where: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

TV: NBA TV, AZFamily, and BSSWX

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Click here for more from James Tillman III

DraftKings

DALLAS WINGS VS PHOENIX MERCURY — SEASON TRENDS

Wings Hoping High-Octane Offense Can Help Get Them Back Into The Win Column

The Dallas Wings come into this matchup with a 4-6 record over their last 10 games. This includes a pair of losses to the Minnesota Lynx on Aug. 22 and Aug. 24. In the team’s 90-81 loss on Thursday, Teaira McCowan paced the Wings with 23 points to go along with 18 rebounds.

The Wings have the third-best offense in the league. At the other end of the floor, Dallas is ranked ninth in points allowed (84.2 PPG) and seventh in defensive rating (105.1 points per 100 possessions). Simply put, Dallas will have to lean on its scoring prowess if it hopes to get back on track.

Dismal Season Continues For Phoenix Mercury

On the other side of this matchup, the Mercury are struggling as well. They have posted just three wins over their last 10 games. This includes a four-game losing skid over the past two weeks. In the team’s recent 91-62 loss to the Sparks, Megan Gustafson – who was inserted into the starting lineup due to Brittney Griner (illness) and Diana Taurasi (ankle) sitting out – played admirably. She finished with 14 points and eight rebounds. It was the second straight game that Gustafson finished with at least 14 points and eight rebounds. She’s also reached double figures in seven of her previous 10 outings.

With key players in and out of the lineup during the season, the Mercury have struggled. They are ranked 12th and 11th in scoring and efficiency. While the narrative is somewhat better on defense, it’s not by much. Phoenix is ranked seventh in scoring defense (allowing 83.7 PPG) and 11th in defensive rating (107.9 points per 100 possessions).

FUN My Pillow

The Picks


The Spread

The Wings are an 8.5-point favorite to win this game. Here is a look at why I agree with this projection.

  • In two of the three meetings this season, the Wings won by a double-digit margin.
  • Dallas is 5-1 ATS the last six times they played on two days of rest.
  • The Wings are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road contests.
  • Phoenix is 9-23-1 in the least 33 games against Western Conference opponents.
  • The Mercury are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record.

Prediction: Dallas Wings (-8.5)

 


Over/Under

The projected O/U total for this contest is 163.5 points. I am going with the OVER, and here is why.

  • The OVER total is 13-3 for Dallas in its last 16 games overall.
  • In Dallas’ last 14 games, the OVER holds a record of 11-3.
  • The OVER total has prevailed eight times for Dallas in its last 11 road games against Phoenix.
  • The OVER is 19-7 for the Mercury in the last 27 times they have played on three or more days of rest.

Prediction: OVER 163.5 points

 


Player Prop Bet

There was no PPB data available. My key player to watch in this game is Dallas Wings guard Arike Ogunbowale. She is averaging 20.7 points per contest. Ogunbowale is also averaging career-best in rebounds (3.5), assists (4.5), and steals (1.6).

Based on the scoring average, I’m going to presume that any projected total would be somewhat based on her season numbers. With that in mind, I’d say go with the OVER if the point total falls between 19-21 points. But if the projected total is higher than 21 points, go with the under.

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