ATLANTA DREAM VS INDIANA FEVER EXPERT PICK – August 27, 2023

ATLANTA DREAM VS INDIANA FEVER EXPERT PICK EXPERT PICK – AUGUST 27, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. After our earlier look at the Sparks vs Sun, our next game on tap features the Atlanta Dream (16-18) taking on the Indiana Fever (10-24).

The Sun are slated in the No. 3 spot and the Sparks are currently tied with the Washington Mystics for the No. 7 spot. As we near the end of the season, it is plausible that both teams could move up in the standings. So, without further delay, here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why. 

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Sunday, August 27, 2023 at 4:00 PM ET

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

TV: NBA TV, BSSO and BSIN

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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ATLANTA DREAM VS INDIANA FEVER–SEASON TRENDS

Atlanta Dream Hoping To Wake Up From Late-Season Nightmare

These two teams faced each other back on August 6 and the Dream prevailed 82-73. Since that victory, the Dream have been a nightmare on the court, dropping five of their next six contests. This includes a pair of losses to the Las Vegas Aces and the Los Angeles Sparks. In the loss to the Sparks, Cheyenne Parker did all she could, scoring 22 points to go with eight boards, four dimes, and four blocks. But it wasn’t enough to help the Dream come out on top despite leading by 13 points at intermission.

Atlanta comes into this pivotal matchup ranked fifth and eighth in scoring and efficiency. And while they are ranked dead last in points allowed (84.5 PPG), they have the sixth-best defensive rating – allowing 103.2 points per 100 possessions.

Fever Are Sick As They Stare At Another Lost Season

Indiana got off to a decent start (4-6). But that proved to be fool’s gold as the team has gone 6-18 since. In the Fever’s recent outing, they defeated the Seattle Storm 90-86, marking just the second time they have won back-to-back games this season. Kelsey Mitchell scored a game-high 36 points on 10-for-20 shooting from the field, 4-for-9 from beyond the arc, and 12-for-16 from the charity stripe. Indiana also got a solid performance from Nalyssa Smith, who tallied 16 points and 11 rebounds.

Indiana is ranked sixth and fifth, in scoring and efficiency. On the flip side of the narrative, this ball club is ranked last in both points allowed (84.8) and defensive rating (108.2 points per 100 possessions). Given their struggles at that end of the floor, it could be a long day at the office for this group in this matchup.

The Picks

The Spread

The Fever are a one-point favorite in this contest. I am NOT buying that and here are a few facts to support my stubbornness.

• Connecticut is 7-0-1 ATS the last eight times they played on two days of rest.
• In the last eight games the Sun have played on a Sunday, they are 6-2 ATS.
• Los Angeles is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times these teams played in Connecticut.
• The Sparks are 8-20 ATS in the last 28 meetings between these two ball clubs.

Prediction: Atlanta Dream (+1.5)

Over/Under

The projected O/U total for this contest is 165 points. Here is why I’m going with the OVER here.

• The OVER has hit four times in Indiana’s last five home games.
• The OVER total is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these teams.
• In the last six meetings in Indiana, the OVER is 4-1-1.
• The OVER is 17-7 for the Dream in their last 24 contests against Eastern Conference opponents.

Prediction: Under 165.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this contest is Indiana Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell. Since there was no PPB available, my suggestion is to go with the OVER if the projected total falls between 19 and 20 points.

The reason is that Mitchell has scored 28 and 36 points, respectively in her last two outings. Furthermore, she is averaging 21.4 points across her last 10 outings. If the projected scoring total is 21 or more, then I would go with the under.