Connecticut Sun vs Atlanta Dream: Expert Pick – July 22, 2023

CONNECTICUT SUN VS ATLANTA DREAM EXPERT PICK – JULY 22, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend coverage of the WNBA here at Godzilla Wins. One of the featured games we will look at is the Connecticut Sun (16-6) taking on the Atlanta Dream (12-9).

In a battle between the second and third-best teams in the eastern conference, here is a look at which team has the edge and why.

Tipoff

When: Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET

Where: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA

TV: ESPN

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of July 22, 2023. Table provided by editorial staff.

Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream – Season Trends

Connecticut Sun Have a Championship-Caliber Team

The Connecticut Sun posted 12 wins in their first 15 contests. And although they stumbled a bit – losing to the New York Liberty (89-81) and the Las Vegas Aces (102-84) – Connecticut has bounced back in a big way, winning four of their last five contests.

This includes an 82-71 victory over the Atlanta Dream on Thursday night. Natisha Hiedeman led all scorers with a career-high 24 points, including 20 in the third quarter. The significance of that stat is she scored 20 of the Sun’s 29 points while the Atlanta Dream produced just 18 points in the game-changing third quarter.

Coming into this matchup, the Sun are ranked fifth in scoring and have the fourth-best efficiency rating from an offensive standpoint. While their offense capability is something that should not be overlooked, this team also gets it done on defense as well.

The Sun are ranked fourth in scoring defense (78.4 PPG) and they have the second-best defensive rating in the association (98.7 points per 100 possessions). That said, it should not be a surprise why this team is in a virtual tie for the second-best record in the league.

Don’t Overlook the Atlanta Dream

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Dream come into this matchup having won seven of their last eight games after a 5-8 start. The team that recently snapped their seven-game winning streak is the same team they will face for the second time in three days – the Connecticut Sun.

Despite the somewhat mediocre record, the Dream are a formidable squad from an offensive standpoint. They have the third-highest scoring offense (85.7 PPG) and the sixth-best efficiency rating. Unfortunately, they don’t play as well on the defensive end of the court. The Dream have the third-worst scoring defense (85.5 PPG) and the seventh-best defensive rating. But considering their season-high, seven-game winning streak, Atlanta is not a team that can be taken lightly.

The Picks

The Connecticut Sun are one-point favorites. Here is why I expect them to win and cover the spread.

The Spread

• Connecticut is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games overall.
• The Sun boast a 6-1 record ATS in the last seven contests against the Dream.
• Connecticut is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five road games against Atlanta.
• In three head-to-head matchups this season, Connecticut covered the spread twice.
• Atlanta is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home.

Prediction: Connecticut Sun (-1)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this contest is 168.5. Although the teams are averaging a combined 166.3 points in their three head-to-head matchups, here are a few trends that suggest why going with the OVER is the smart move.

• The OVER total has cashed in six times in Atlanta’s last eight home games overall.
• The OVER has prevailed for Atlanta four times in its last six games against the Sun.
• The teams are averaging a combined total of 169.5 points per game this season.

Prediction: OVER 168.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My player to watch in this contest is Atlanta Dream forward Cheyenne Parker. She currently has +105 odds of scoring more than 12.5 points and -135 odds of scoring less than the projected total.

In her third season with Atlanta, Parker is averaging career-highs in points (14.0), rebounds (7.4), and blocks (1.3).  Additionally, she has scored at least 14 points in five of her last seven outings.

Based on her overall season numbers and her recent body of work, I am going with the OVER here.

Prediction: Cheyenne Parker OVER 12.5 points

James’s Picks

• Connecticut Sun (-1)
• OVER 168.5 points
• Cheyenne Parker OVER 12.5 points