Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Lakers Expert Pick – April 6, 2024

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS. LOS ANGELES LAKERS EXPERT PICK – APRIL 6, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from today’s slate features the Cleveland Cavaliers (46-31 SU, 36-39-2 ATS) taking on the Los Angeles Lakers (45-33 SU, 37-41 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Saturday, April 6, 2024

Time: 3:30 PM ET

Where: Crypto.com Arena

Location: Los Angeles, CA

TV: SportsNet LA, CW43

 

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Lakers Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Cleveland Cavaliers (46-31 SU, 36-39-2 ATS)	+4.5	+5.5	O228.5	+170
Los Angeles Lakers (45-33 SU, 37-41 ATS)	U227.5	-5.5	U228.5	-205

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Lakers – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Cavaliers Hang On To The No. 3 Spot In the Eastern Conference? 

Cleveland Cavaliers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 112.6 PPG – 19^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 116.9 points per 100 possessions – 17^TH
• Scoring Defense: 109.9 PPG – 7^TH                    
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.1 points per 100 possessions – 8^TH

The Cavaliers currently own the No. 3 spot in the Eastern Conference. But their margin for error will be small down the stretch as they lead the Orlando Magic and New York Knicks by just one game. And the Pacers are just 2.5 games back.

Inconsistency has gotten the best of this team as of late. They have won just four times over their last 10 outings.

In their most recent outing, the Cavaliers suffered a 122-101 loss to the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday night. Four of Cleveland’s starters reached double figures headlined by 24 points from Donovan Mitchell.

Jarrett Allen and Even Mobley scored 20 points each. Darius Garland finished with 15 points and eight assists.

Cleveland was outscored by a 72-47 margin in the first half. While they played better in the second half, the 25-point deficit was too much to overcome.

The first half, you give up 72 points, it’s hard to come back from,” Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff said after the game. “I was proud of the guys’ effort in the second half. I thought we competed at a much higher level.”

The Suns shot the ball at an efficient clip – 50.6 percent overall and 54.5 percent from beyond the arc. Cleveland will need a better effort at that end of the floor against a Lakers squad that is desperately trying to avoid the play-in tournament.

Can The Lakers Climb Out of The Play-In Spot?

Los Angeles Lakers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 117.9 PPG – 8^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.0 points per 100 possessions – 15^TH        
• Scoring Defense: 117.5 PPG – 23^RD
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.6 points per 100 possessions – 14^TH

The Lakers are in the ninth spot in the conference playoff race and lead the 10^th-place Golden State Warriors by two games. On the other side of the narrative, Los Angeles is just two games behind the sixth-place Phoenix Suns, and they have produced eight wins across their last 10 decisions.

This includes wins over the Brooklyn Nets (116-104), Toronto Raptors (128-111), and the Washington Wizards (125-120). Anthony Davis paced the Lakers’ scoring attack in that contest with 35 points on 10-for-17 shooting from the floor. He also hauled in 18 rebounds and blocked three shots as well.

LeBron James added 25 points, nine assists, seven rebounds, and three steals. Rui Hachimura finished with 19 points and seven rebounds against his former team.

The win over the Wizards was the team’s eighth in its last nine games. As impressive as this stretch has been, though, the Lakers cannot afford to let their guard down against a Cavaliers team that has just as much to play for as they do.

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Lakers opened as a consensus five-point favorite. That line has climbed to 5.5 points for the home team (per Pre-Game.com).  Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last five contests.
• Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last six matchups against the Lakers.
• In their last six road games, the Cavaliers are 1-5 against the spread.
• The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven outings.
• Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests against Central Division opponents.
• In its last 10 Saturday games, the Lakers are 7-3 against the spread.

Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers (+5.5)

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Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 227.5 points (per OddShark). At the time of this writing, the line has moved up to 228 points (via DraftKings). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER six times in the Cavaliers’ last seven outings.
• The OVER total is 5-2 in Cleveland’s last seven contests against Pacific Division teams.
• The total has gone OVER 14 times in the Lakers’ last 20 matchups against Cleveland.
• In Los Angeles’ last 14 games, the OVER total has prevailed 10 times.
• The two teams average a combined 230.5 points per contest, which is 2.5 points higher than the projected points total for this matchup.

Prediction: OVER 228 points

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Player Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Donovan Mitchell. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 21.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 21.5 points.

Here’s a glance to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 17 career games against the Lakers, he is averaging 24.6 points per contest.
• On the season, Mitchell is averaging 26.8 points across 52 outings.
• In 28 road contests, he is averaging 24.4 PPG.
• Mitchell has played against Western Conference teams 19 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 25.2 points per outing.
• In seven matchups against Pacific Division opponents, he is averaging 25.3 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Mitchell has averaged 20.8 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Donovan Mitchell OVER 21.5 points

Fresh off a brilliant 35-point, 18-rebound effort against Washington, the key player to watch for the home team is Anthony Davis. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points and -125 odds of finishing with less than 24.5 points.

Will AD’s numbers compare favorably to the points total? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• In 18 career games against the Cavaliers, he is averaging 20.8 points per contest.
• On the season, Davis is averaging 24.8 points across 72 appearances.
• In 39 home contests, he is averaging 24.6 PPG.
• Davis has played against Eastern Conference teams 27 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 26.4 points per outing.
• In nine matchups against Central Division opponents, he is averaging 26.3 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Davis has averaged 24.9 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Anthony Davis OVER 24.5 points

James Tillman’s Cavaliers vs. Lakers Picks

Spread: Cavaliers (+5.5) Over/Under: OVER 228 points Player Prop Bet #1: Donovan Mitchell OVER 21.5 points Player Prop Bet #2: Anthony Davis OVER 24.5 points