Clemson vs. Alabama Expert Pick and Prediction – March 30, 2024 

CLEMSON VS. ALABAMA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 30, 2024 — No, you’re not seeing things: we really do have Clemson vs. Alabama in the postseason, this time in basketball. These two have been the gold standard in football for much of the past decade, but basketball has mostly been something for people in Clemson and Tuscaloosa to pass the time with until it’s time for either baseball or spring football.

Not this time. Both teams are in the Elite Eight for just the second time in school history, as Clemson last got here in 1980 and Alabama made it in 2004. Both fell at this hurdle, which means the winner will make their first Final Four trip ever.

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On top of that, this game is a rematch. Before anyone ever thought Clemson might be good this season, the Tigers gave everyone a clue by locking down Alabama in an 85-77 win in Tuscaloosa. If that doesn’t sound like a lockdown, you haven’t watched Alabama play. Holding the Crimson Tide to 77 points is like holding Virginia to 30. The Tide play so quickly and get so many possessions that they scored 77 on Clemson while shooting just 34 percent from the floor.

And that’s where the Tigers’ recent defensive success might not be a fluke after all. Clemson’s given the appearance of a charmed life with New Mexico, Baylor and Arizona all missing shots they normally make. But at least part of that has to do with the Tigers themselves. Clemson ranks eighth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage, and the Tigers already showed they can force a team to hit the brakes against Arizona. If Clemson can force Alabama into shots it doesn’t want, it has a big edge.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Clemson (24-11 SU, 20-14-1 ATS)	O164.5	+3.5	O163.5	+140
Alabama (24-11 SU, 19-15-1 ATS)	-3.5	-3.5	U163.5	-165

Tipoff 

When: Saturday, March 30 at 8:50 p.m. EST 

Where: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles

TV: TBS

Public Bets: 51% on Alabama 

Public Money: 72% on Alabama

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 30th, 2024

Clemson vs. Alabama In-Season Trends 

The streak has now reached 15 for Clemson where the Tigers have either matched their ATS result to their game result or pushed. The last time Clemson won without covering or covered in defeat was Jan. 30 in a six-point home win over Louisville. Betting the Tigers has taken virtually no thought on the math; you either bet them to cover if you think they can win the game or fade if you don’t.

The other thing about the Tigers is that they’re mucking up their opponents. After not showing up in the ACC Tournament, Clemson used to break to refocus on defense. The Tigers have played four straight unders and haven’t allowed an opponent to break 72 in the NCAA tournament.

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Alabama usually sees 72 around the 10-minute mark of the second half. The Tide did handle getting slowed down by Grand Canyon, but for the most part, the Tide focus on scoring. In their past four losses, the opponent has hung 100 points on them three times. The over has cashed eight times in their past 10 games.

The Difference-Makers 

Does Alabama have an answer for PJ Hall? The only thing that worked in Tuscaloosa was getting the Clemson big man in foul trouble, as Hall scored 21 points in 21 minutes in the first meeting. He also ended up carrying four fouls by game’s end, as Brad Brownell went deep into his bench. Hall blocked four Alabama shots that night, and Clemson likely wants to use him again to change things up on defense. But this time, he has to stay on the floor.

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Mark Sears and the Tide’s shooters have to be better than last time. The Tide took 35 3-pointers in the first game and only sank 11 of them. Clemson also hit 11 and needed 14 fewer shots to do it. Sears and company have to do a better job of making the shots that come.

The Pick 

Clemson’s defense is riding high right now, and the Tigers have already shown that they can handle the way the Tide plays. Alabama’s style is difficult to adjust to if you aren’t ready, but Arizona presents a lot of the same problems that Alabama does.

Clemson is deep enough to survive the quick turnaround. The Tigers go nine deep and don’t have any qualms about playing the whole bench. The only one of the original nine ACC teams without a Final Four appearance finally ends that drought.

Dan’s Picks

Clemson +3.5    Under 163.5