Colorado vs. Iowa Expert Pick and Prediction – March 30, 2024 

COLORADO VS. IOWA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 30, 2024 — Same time, next year, as Iowa and Colorado meet in the Sweet 16. This time, however, the nation’s eyes are focused on this game because of Caitlin Clark, and the Buffaloes are wearing the black hats.

And Colorado might well be in position to turn the tables on Iowa, given how the personnel of both teams have changed from last year. Clark no longer has her Robin in center Monika Czinano, which totally changes how the Hawkeyes’ attack runs. The Buffaloes, on the other hand, brought back their four leading scorers from last season, when they lost by 10 to Iowa to end the campaign.

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There are ways to beat Clark and Iowa, and Indiana showed one blueprint in the Hawkeyes’ last loss of the season. In that game, the Hoosiers kept Clark from getting any good looks from the field and smashed Iowa by an 86-69 count.

The other strategy was what West Virginia nearly pulled off in the second round: cutting off her passing lanes. The Mountaineers held Clark to just three assists, which nearly opened the door for what would have been a tournament-changing upset.

Colorado has already beaten LSU and isn’t going to be afraid of Iowa. And if the Hawkeyes don’t have a second scorer operating along with Clark, this game could be a reversal of last season.

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Colorado (24-9 SU)	O163.5	+6.5	O157.5	+225
Iowa (31-4 SU)	-8.5	-6.5	U157.5	-375

Tipoff 

When: Saturday, March 30 at 3:30 p.m. EST 

Where: MVP Arena, Albany, N.Y.

TV: ABC

Public Bets: Unavailable 

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 29th, 2024

Colorado vs. Iowa In-Season Trends 

The Buffaloes have been just one step behind the Pac-12’s elite teams all year, which has led to them hanging around all year. They took seven losses in the Pac-12, and all of them were by single digits to teams that made the postseason. They did manage to upset Stanford and USC at home, and they’ve shown their mettle now that they’re free from the Pac-12’s loaded top four.

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Iowa’s mantra has mostly been outscore, outscore, outscore. The Hawkeye women hit the gas as well as the men do, and they actually win. Prior to West Virginia, Iowa had scored 90 points or more in seven consecutive games, hitting triple digits twice in that stretch. The Hawkeyes usually crush overs by themselves because of Clark, but they haven’t managed to hit their spread either time in this tournament.

The Difference-Makers 

Clark is of course a difference maker in any game she plays, but Iowa does have talent behind her. Hannah Stuelke produced a double-double against West Virginia, and her five offensive rebounds helped the Hawkeyes survive Clark shooting under 40% from behind the arc. If she’s off again, Stuelke will have to keep possessions going.

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Last year, Aaronette Vonleh scored 14 points, but only managed five rebounds because she had to battle Czinano. This year, she’s likely to have the edge in the paint for Colorado, and she’s shown herself capable of a big game. In the Pac-12 tournament, Vonleh scored 20 points in the Buffaloes’ loss to Oregon State, and she opened the tournament with a double-double against Drake. Getting a big game from her will be key to neutralizing Clark.

The Pick 

The bettors are getting wise to the Clark effect, as the total has come down since it opened. As great as she is, she can’t do this all herself. Colorado seems like the kind of team that can upset the apple cart.

The Buffaloes are far deeper than the Hawkeyes. They also have the experience needed to force someone else to beat them besides Clark. Without the teammates she had last year, Clark and Iowa aren’t in anywhere near as strong a position. The Buffaloes should cover, and they might win this outright.

Dan’s Picks

Colorado +6.5    Under 157.5