Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers Expert Pick – November 9, 2023

CHICAGO BEARS VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS EXPERT PICK – NOVEMBER 9, 2023 – Happy Thursday, football fans. Welcome back to our weekly NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

My game of the week features the Chicago Bears (2-7) hosting the Carolina Panthers (1-7). For obvious reasons, a game between two of the worst teams in the league isn’t anything to be overly excited about.

In a matchup of rookie quarterbacks under center for both sides, let’s see which team has the edge going into this Week 9 matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 8:15 PM ET

Where: Solider Field, Chicago, IL

TV: Amazon Prime

 

Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Carolina Panthers (1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS)	+1.5	+3.5	O38.5	+140
Chicago Bears (2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS)	U41.5	-3.5	U38.5	-166

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

There are three teams in the NFL with a 2-7 record and only two with a worse record than the Bears. Fortunately, for the Bears, this week’s opponent is one of those teams.

The Panthers have dropped four of their last five contests. This includes a 27-13 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9. Bryce Young had an outing he’d like to forget. He was 24-of-39 for 173 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. Two of those picks were returned for touchdowns. Young was also sacked four times as well.

Despite their abysmal 1-7 record, the Panthers are respectable from a defensive standpoint. They are ranked eighth in total yards allowed (310.0), and fifth in passing yards allowed per contest (178.3). Unfortunately, this team has little to offer from a scoring standpoint. Carolina is ranked 28^th in total offense and 27^th in scoring as they are averaging just 17.5 points per outing.

 

Meanwhile, Chicago comes into this matchup having dropped three of its last five games. Tyson Bagent, struggled a bit in the team’s 24-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints last week. He finished 18-of-30 for 220 yards with two touchdowns and 70 rushing yards. But he also threw three interceptions, including two in the fourth quarter. Those two picks, plus a lost fumble, negated any chance the Bears had of winning the game.

Chicago is ranked 19^th in both total offense (325.9 yards per game), and scoring (20.9 points per outing). Defensively, the Bears are ranked 19^th in total defense (336.6 YPG), and 28^th in scoring defense (26.9 PPG).

While the Panthers are not an offensive juggernaut by any means, Bryce Young may have some success against a Bears’ defense that is ranked 26^th against the pass. On the other side of the coin, Chicago’s fourth-ranked rushing offense should have some success against a Carolina squad that has the fifth-worst rushing defense in the NFL.

The Picks

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The Spread

The Bears opened as a 1.5-point favorite. Oddly enough, that line has moved to 3.5. As one would expect, neither team has played well against the spread.

• Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
• The Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five matchups against NFC teams.
• Chicago is just 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games overall.
• The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five contests against teams in the NFC South Division.
• Lastly, Chicago is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games against the NFC.

When it comes to the Bears this season, I usually go with the opposition covering the spread.  But on this rare occasion in which their opponent has fewer wins than they do, I’m going to “cautiously” go with the home team to cover the spread.

Prediction: Chicago Bears (-3.5)

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Over/Under

The over/under points total for this matchup opened at 41.5. Shockingly, that line has moved to 38.5. Here are a few trends that suggest why the OVER could be the way to go.

• The OVER has hit for the Panthers four times in their last six games against NFC opponents.
• In Chicago’s last five November games, the OVER has hit four times.
• The OVER has prevailed six times in the Bears’ last eight games which were played in week 10.
• In the Bears’ last 20 games, the OVER has cashed in 14 times.

Prediction: OVER 38.5 points

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Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this matchup is Tyson Bagent. However, I’m going in a slightly different direction with my player prop bet this week. Rather than looking strictly at the projected passing total, I’m going with the combination of passing and rushing yards.

Bagent currently has -115 odds of accumulating 214.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 214.5 yards. Of his three starts, Bagent has exceeded the projected total twice. He finished with 290 total yards against the Saints and 231 total yards against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 8.

Prediction: Tyson Bagent OVER 214.5 total yards

James’s Picks

Spread: Bears (-3.5) Over/Under: OVER 38.5 points PPB: Tyson Bagent Over 214.5 yards