Celtics vs. Sixers Expert Pick

Celtics vs. Sixers Expert Pick - February 25, 2023

CELTICS VS. SIXERS EXPERT PICK - FEBRUARY 25, 2023 - Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekly column where we break down a couple of the marquee matchups from the upcoming weekend’s slate of NBA games.

One of the more intriguing contests features the Boston Celtics (43-17) taking on the Philadelphia 76ers (39-19). The Celtics have the best record in the Eastern Conference and the league as well. The Sixers aren’t far behind, trailing Boston by just three games in the standings.

A Pair of Wins

One common thread between these two teams is they are both coming off wins in their last outings. The Celtics edged the Indiana Pacers by a 142-138 margin, but they needed OT to do so. The Celtics were led by Jayson Tatum (31 points, including 26 in the second half and OT) and Jaylen Brown, who contributed 30 points in the winning effort.

The Sixers overcame a 15-point deficit to defeat the Memphis Grizzlies 115-110 on Thursday night.

James Harden paced Philly with 31 points, seven rebounds, and seven dimes. Joel Embiid – who suited up despite being sick – finished with 27 points. Although he didn’t shoot the ball particularly well (7-for-25), he also tallied 19 boards, six assists, and six blocks. None more impressive than this block on a dunk attempt by Morant in the waning moments of the game.

This was the Sixers’ fifth consecutive win and they are hoping to continue their recent success against the league’s best team. So, without further ado, here is a breakdown of the matchup between two of the top three teams in the eastern conference.

Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers Season Trends

The Sixers are somewhat of a mixed bag while Celtics play well at both ends of the floor.

In addition to winning five straight, the Sixers have also posted seven wins in their last 10 outings. From an offensive standpoint, Philadelphia is fairly decent.

While Philly is a middle-of-the-pack team in scoring (16th), it has the eighth-best efficiency in the NBA. But the defensive end of the court is a different story altogether. The Sixers have the third-best scoring defense (allowing 110.4 points per contest) and they have the sixth-best defensive rating in the association.

If you like what the Sixers have to offer, you will be equally impressed with what the Celtics bring to this matchup as well. For instance, Boston is ranked third in both scoring and efficiency. At the other end of the court, the Celtics are ranked 7th in points allowed (112.2 points per contest) and fifth in defensive efficiency (allowing 112.1 points per 100 possessions).

Boston has won each of its last two games, while Philadelphia has posted five consecutive victories. One of those streaks will come to an abrupt end.

The Picks

Over/Under

The predicted O/U total for this contest is 226.5. The two teams are averaging a combined 232.6 points per outing.

The total has gone OVER for Boston in each of its last five games. The total has gone OVER five times in the last seven games in which Boston faced a team on one day of rest.

Meanwhile, the predicted total has gone OVER for Philly in its last four games against a team with a winning record. The Celtics are 43-17.

The predicted total has gone OVER for the Sixers six times in the previous eight games they have played on a Saturday.

Additionally, the OVER has a 6-2 record for the Sixers in the last eight instances in which they played against a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Celtics’ current winning percentage is .717. In other words, go with OVER in this matchup.

Spread

Boston opened as a consensus one-point favorite and as of the time of this writing, that line has not moved. Both teams have some favorable trends concerning the spread.

Boston is 8-0 ATS after allowing more than 125 points in the previous game and they hold a 4-0 record ATS when they’re playing on one day of rest.

Philadelphia has a 10-2 record ATS in their last 12 February games. The Sixers have also posted a 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in which they’ve played on a Saturday.

Given these trends, this prediction could go either way. But since I have to choose, I’m going with the Celtics to cover (-1).

Player Prop Bet

My player to watch in this matchup is Jayson Tatum. He currently has -106 odds of scoring over 29.5 points against the Sixers. In 19 career games against the Sixers, Tatum is averaging 19.5 points per contest.

However, recent trends tell a different story. Tatum is averaging a career-best 30.6 points per contest. In addition to that, he has scored 30 points or more in five of his previous eight outings. Based on that metric, it is safe to predict that Tatum will exceed the predicted 29.5 total.

Celtics vs. Sixers Expert Pick – February 25, 2023