Bucks vs. Warriors Expert Pick - March 11, 2023

BUCKS VS. WARRIORS EXPERT PICK – MARCH 11, 2023 - Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekly column where we discuss a few of the matchups from the weekend slate of NBA games. Today, we will preview the Milwaukee Bucks (48-18) and the Golden State Warriors (34-33).

Will the Bucks kick off their three-game road trip out west with a win over the Dubs, or will Golden State continue to perform well on their home court? Let’s dive into this matchup and find out which team has the edge.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Golden State Warriors Season Trends

Warriors Not So Golden Since Stephen Curry Returned To The Lineup

When Stephen Curry went down with a lower leg injury, it was reasonable to presume the team would struggle somewhat without its top scorer in the rotation.

However, the Warriors posted a 7-4 record during that stretch and had moved up to the No. 5 spot a week ago. Unfortunately, since Curry’s return the Warriors have dropped three straight games, including a 131-110 loss at the hands of the Memphis Grizzlies.

This stretch has dropped the Dubs into the No. 7 spot, just a half-game ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves. In other words, the Warriors need a win and they need one badly.

Fear The Deer - The Milwaukee Bucks Are Clicking On All Cylinders

While the defending champs continue to struggle, the Bucks are running like a well-oiled machine. They defeated the Brooklyn Nets by a slim 118-113 margin on Thursday night.

Bobby Portis scored a team-high 28 points to go along with 13 rebounds. Brook Lopez turned in a solid performance, finishing with 24 points, 10 rebounds, and nine blocked shots. It was the third straight victory for a Bucks’ squad that has won 19 times in their last 20 games.

Although the Warriors are the third-best scoring team in the association, the Bucks are ranked ninth, averaging 115.9 points per contest. And if defense is your cup of tea, you will like the fact that the Bucks are ranked fifth in points allowed (111.7) and third in efficiency, allowing 110.6 per 100 possessions.

Milwaukee is ranked second in opponent field goal percentage, limiting the opposition to 45.1 percent shooting. And the Bucks are also ranked second in opponent shooting from 3-point range, limiting their opponents to 34.3 percent.

Although Giannis Antetokounmpo may not suit up for this game (right hand), the Bucks’ defense could be enough to squeak out a win against a team with one of the best home records in the NBA.

The Picks

Over/Under

Currently, the projected O/U total is 238.5 points. Both teams are averaging a combined 233.9 points per contest and allowing a combined 229.3 points per outing.

Here are a few trends that suggest going with the UNDER in this matchup.

The Under is 28-10 in Milwaukee’s last 38 games on the road. The Under has a 19-7 record in the Bucks’ last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record. Golden State is 27-7 at home.

The Under has a 5-2 mark in the Warriors’ last seven contests in which they allowed an opponent to score 100 points or more. They gave up 131 points in their loss to Memphis.

Furthermore, the total has gone under in 17 of the Warriors’ last 25 home games when facing a team with a winning road record. Milwaukee is 20-12.

Spread

At the time of this writing, the projected spread had the Bucks at -1 and the Warriors at +1. That line has moved now to the Warriors now being favored at -1 and the Bucks at +1.

Golden State has a 44-16-1 mark against the spread in its last 61 home games against an opponent with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. The Bucks have a winning percentage of .625.

The Warriors have a 36-14-1 record ATS in their last 51 home games against a team with a winning road record, and they are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 instances in which they are coming off a straight-up loss of more than 10 points. Their margin of defeat against the Grizzlies was 21 points.

The Dubs are 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 home games. Based on these trends, go with the defending champs to cover the -1 spread.

Player Prop Bet

My player to watch in this game is Stephen Curry. He currently has -105 odds to score more than 28.5 points and -125 odds of scoring less than 28.5 points.

In 21 games against the Bucks, Curry is averaging 20.5 points per contest. And he has scored 28 or more points just twice in his last 10 outings against the Bucks.

On the flip side of the narrative, Curry has scored 28 or more points six times in his past nine contests. And he’s averaging 29.6 points per game this season.

Based on the recent trends, I’m expecting chef Curry to go OVER the predicted 28.5 points.

Bucks vs. Warriors Expert Pick – March 11, 2023