Stars vs. Golden Knights Expert Pick – May 21, 2023
STARS VS. GOLDEN KNIGHTS EXPERT PICK – May 21, 2023 — The Stars saw the good and the bad in Game 1, as they got some important help from two key players, but they also saw the Golden Knights beat them at their own game.
Dallas won its first two series in large part by winning faceoffs, which set them up with scoring chances before Minnesota and Seattle had a chance to breathe. The Stars entered this series leading the NHL in faceoff wins during the playoffs, a fairly unsurprising stat given that they led the NHL in faceoff wins during the regular season.
But Vegas turned the tables in Game 1, winning the draw 57% of the time to take away the Stars’ best weapon. The Golden Knights also had no problem re-introducing the Stars to physical play, landing 29 hits to Dallas’ 17. That’s a real problem for Dallas, because they’re coming off a punishing seven-game series with Seattle.
The Kraken crunched the Stars with an average of 40 hits a night, which takes its toll on a team as it gets deeper into the postseason. The Golden Knights, on the other hand, gave as good as they got with Edmonton. If Dallas can’t win the draws and can’t stand up to Vegas with hitting, the improved play Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger showed in Game 1 won’t be enough to matter.
The Odds
Matchup |
Open |
Spread |
Total |
Moneyline |
Dallas Stars(55-25-16 SU,
|
O5.5 |
+1.5 |
O5.5 |
+105 |
Vegas Golden Knights(60-25-9 SU, 51-43 PL) |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
U5.5 |
-125 |
Puck Drop
When: Sunday, May 21st at 3 p.m. EDT
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Public Bets: 53% on Vegas
Public Money: 50% on Vegas
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 20th, 2023 
Dallas vs. Vegas In-Season Trends
Once again, going with the underdog on the puckline worked out, and that’s now 12 of 14 matchups between the Stars and the Golden Knights decided by a single goal. The OVER finally hit in the third period as both goaltenders were a bit shaky down the stretch after turning in 40 good minutes of hockey.
Whether the OVER cashes again depends on where the chances come from. Vegas came up with a lot of quality chances over the course of the game, while Dallas tended to settle for long-range looks. The OVER has cashed in seven of the Stars’ past nine games and Vegas has hit exactly seven in three straight games, so this might be a case of the trends from the regular season reversing in the playoffs.
Players to Watch
Vegas prop plays continue to be a tough nut to crack because the Golden Knights can get scoring from anywhere. Three different lines got on the scoresheet in Game 1, and none of them was the top line that includes Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault. However, Eichel won 73% of his faceoffs in Game 1 and got four shots on goal, including one breakaway chance that only got stopped by Oettinger. He’s not likely to go silent again.
On the Dallas side, Roope Hintz continues to sparkle in these playoffs. In the Seattle series, the formula was simple: get Hintz on the stat sheet and get a win, as the Stars went 4-0 when Hintz picked up a point and 0-3 when he didn’t. It wasn’t enough to get a win in Game 1 against Vegas, but he was involved in all three Dallas goals Friday. Odds are, the Golden Knights won’t yet have an answer for him.
The Pick
Dallas isn’t out of this series by a longshot, but the way the Golden Knights won Game 1 gives me a real pause before backing the Stars here. Getting Oettinger back on his game is a good thing, but if Dallas is losing faceoffs regularly in this series, Vegas is going to seize control.
I think there’s a good chance Dallas bounces back, but I’m not confident enough in the Stars to pick them to win until they show they can win their way. As such, I’ll play this more conservatively and back the Stars on the puckline to protect myself against a one-goal Vegas win.
Dan’s Picks |
Stars +1.5Jack Eichel Over 0.5 PointsRoope Hintz Over 0.5 Points |
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