Yankees vs. Red Sox Expert Pick and Prediction – June 16, 2023

YANKEES VS. RED SOX EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – JUNE 16, 2023 – Eventually, the Red Sox are going to win a game with Tanner Houck on the mound.

It hasn’t happened away from Fenway Park since April 8, but he’s not been the problem in those games. The problem has been the Red Sox offense, which has failed to give him more than two runs of support in any of his past six starts, including a 3-1 loss to the Yankees six days ago in the Bronx.

But at Fenway, he’s actually been a worse pitcher, even though four of the Red Sox’s five victories with him on the mound have come at Fenway.

In those games, Houck gave up six runs to Toronto and didn’t get past four innings against the Angels. The difference was that Boston actually hit back then, scoring at least five runs in all of those games. 

Against Domingo German, the Sox probably aren’t likely to see their hitting numbers increase. German held them to one run on six hits in six innings last week, and six of his past seven starts have seen him hold the opponent to two runs or less.

Only Seattle did much of anything against him, and the Yankees mitigated that by putting up 10 runs that night. German might not be overpowering, but the Yankees give him enough run support to have made him effective.

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The Odds

First Pitch

When: Friday, June 16th at 7:10 p.m. EDT

Where: Fenway Park, Boston 

Starting Pitchers: Domingo German, NYY (4-3, 3.49 ERA, 64 K’s) vs. Tanner Houck, BOS (3-6, 5.23 ERA, 62 K’s) 

Public Bets: 63% on New York

Public Money: 61% on New York

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 16th, 2023

New York vs. Boston In-Season Trends

You’d think that Fenway would be a great park for hitters given how short the fences are. And in this series, you’d be very wrong. The UNDER has cashed in four of the past five meetings in Boston, and it just cashed three straight in the Bronx last week. The Yankees have actually done an incredible job at run prevention in June, as seven of their 11 games this month have seen seven runs or less scored between both teams. In the Boston series, the teams combined to score 14 runs across three games.

The Yankees have also played plenty of one-run games lately. Over their past three series, six of eight games have been decided by exactly one run. Those games haven’t been their specialty, however: six of their past seven one-run games have been New York defeats.

Players to Watch

Ironically, the one game in which DJ LeMahieu failed to get a hit in the Boston series was the one the Yankees won. LeMahieu has had a tough time getting going this season, but he does have five hits in his past five games and got three hits off Red Sox pitchers. If he gets rolling again, it’ll make a real difference in New York’s lineup.

Enrique Hernandez is also starting to hit on the other side of the diamond. Hernandez is just a .229 hitter this season, but he’s now recorded seven hits in his past eight games and did well against Yankee pitching.

The Pick

Boston’s struggles with Houck on the mound are well known, and the Yankees excel at playing low-scoring games. I’m a little worried by the Yankees’ tendency to lose one-run games, but until Boston shows they can actually win again with Houck on the mound, I’ve got to lean in the Yanks’ direction.