Spain vs. Netherlands Women: Expert Pick and Prediction – August 10, 2023
SPAIN VS. NETHERLANDS WOMEN EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 10, 2023 — As the Women’s World Cup hits the quarterfinals, rest begins to enter the equation. But all the rest in the world won’t help Netherlands midfielder Danielle van de Donk, who’s suspended from this match after yellow card accumulation.
While her teammates celebrated knocking off South Africa in the Round of 16, Van de Donk left the pitch in tears, thinking her World Cup might be over.
The question is, can the Dutch handle Spain? After getting dissected by Japan, La Roja looked like they might be in trouble coming to the knockout stages. Instead, Spain crushed Switzerland 5-1, and the Spanish put all six in the net, as Switzerland’s only marker on the scoresheet came via an own goal:
Other than that showing against Japan — a match Spain did not need to win to progress — Spain has looked one of the best sides in the tournament. The Spaniards have recent history on their side too, as they’ve won three straight against the Dutch without giving up a single goal.
But they’ve not been beyond the quarterfinals at a major tournament since 1997, bowing out after four matches or less in five consecutive events. That gives the Dutch the edge in experience, as they made the final back in 2019.
Match Preview
When: Thursday, August 10th at 9 p.m. EDT
Where: Wellington Regional Stadium, Wellington, New Zealand
Scouting Spain
The thing that really makes the Spanish dangerous is that they have the ability to leave the best player in the world on the bench until the last 20 minutes without issue. With Alexia Putellas still not at 100%, Spain coach Jorge Vilda has usually waited until necessary to bring her on and only pushed her when absolutely necessary.
That’s helped keep the Spanish in top shape as the tournament has unfolded, which might prove crucial in these matches. Even if Putellas doesn’t play more than 20 minutes, Aitana Bonmati can still boss the midfield.
Coach Vilda also moved Jennifer Hermoso to the midfield against Switzerland with excellent results. Given the Dutch strength in center field, Spain’s depth could prove to be a key difference.
Price to advance: -205
Scouting Netherlands
The key to this match is going to be in the midfield, as the Dutch have to make up for the absence of Van de Donk. Most likely, that means Damaris Egurrola moves into her slot alongside Jill Roord and Jackie Groenen.
Whether that move works depends on how well Roord can adapt to being the main cog in the midfield. She’s been the Netherlands’ best player in this tournament, but part of that has been because she had Van de Donk out there to draw attention away from her.
With that absence, the performance of the Dutch back line will be critical. Stefanie van der Gragt has done an excellent job anchoring the defense, which has kept Daphne van Domselaar from being tested much in the tournament.
Impressively, Van Domselaar has kept three clean sheets in four matches. What’s more, the Dutch have only conceded once since arriving in New Zealand.
Price to advance: +160
Match Bets
All odds shown below are courtesy of DraftKings.
Under 2.5 (-110)
The Dutch aren’t going to roll over and die without Van de Donk. They still have a top defense, and unlike Spain, they have won at this level before. They’re likely to draw this match out and try to win it with one counterattack, which Spain has proven vulnerable to at times. Either way, chances are likely to be on the lighter side.
Netherlands +0.5 (-110)
The Dutch should be able to hang with Spain for 90 minutes. Doing it for 120 seems less likely, but we don’t need them to hang on in extra time to win this bet. I’m banking on Roord and the midfield to slow Spain up until they run out of gas.
Final Score
Spain is the stronger side and looks like it has much more depth, which gives it the edge if the match makes it into extra time. I think it will, as I think the Dutch have enough to stay level with Spain until the end of 90 minutes.
In particular, Roord’s played very well, and Putellas isn’t likely to go more than 20 minutes before extra time. That leads me to Spain 1, Netherlands 1 (+460), with Spain to advance in extra time.
Dan’s Picks
- Netherlands +0.5
- Under 2.5
- Draw 1-1