WM Phoenix Open: Odds, Field, and Best Bets

WM PHOENIX OPEN: ODDS, FIELD AND BEST BETS – It’s Super Bowl weekend and one of the greatest spectacles on the PGA Tour is upon us. Before we get into this tournament, it’s worth noting that another long shot has cashed a winning ticket with Wyndham Clark taking down the rain-shortened AT&T Pro-Am at odds of 100/1 (depending on your shop).

There will be about four million beers consumed on the premises of TPC Scottsdale, so the atmosphere — especially on Sunday — isn’t something that all the players handle well.

Historically, elite drivers and elite short games tend to thrive here. The course isn’t a brute, but players will need to capitalize on the par-5s and the short par-4 17th in order to win this tournament.

The greens are bigger than the tiny targets offered last week at Pebble Beach and the poa annua greens will be running a lot smoother.

Two weird things to note in this tournament. Nearly every recent winner at this event has had a previous top-10 finish, with the exception of Brooks Kopek who won in his debut in 2015. The other notable thing is that bad putters win here a lot.

The greens rate as some of the easiest on Tour which allows ball striking extraordinaires (and terrible putters) like Scottie Scheffler and Hideki to hoist trophies in recent memory.

The biggest thing is that you want to be solid off the tee here and you want to be able to save par if you miss a green. The putting seems to be so simple that tends to be a neutral factor for most players.

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Favorites

Wyndham Clark (+2800)

Why can’t he win two in a row? He played basically two great rounds at Pebble to win last week, and I think this course sets up better for his game anyways.

His course history isn’t the greatest here, and that’s something I usually lean on for this event, but he was 10th last year.

He putted like an absolute madman last week — the first I’ve noticed that he’s switched to left-hand low — and I would expect him to keep up the momentum on a similar surface. He’s gaining strokes across the board, but his iron game has been the big revelation since last season when he took down the US Open.

If he keeps hitting the fairway, he can beat any field. With this year being a little bit weaker with two elevated events sandwiching it, I don’t think it’s crazy for Wyndham to keep rolling and notch another win.

Midtier

Sahith Theegala (+4000)

Sahith almost won here two years ago before an errant tee shot on 17 dashed his hopes. Thus, he’s already shown a propensity for success on a course that pretty reliably churns up the same names towards the top of the leaderboard.

Theegala is the type of short game wizard that gets rewarded on this type of course. He’s long enough to take advantage of the par-5s, and his weak driving accuracy numbers don’t hurt him as much here.

This just feels like a little bit of a redemption moment for him to get a win here now that he’s a proven winner.

 

Longshot

Billy Horschel (+13000)

This is a weird one. It’s mostly a course history combined with talent play. Billy Ho has a lot more talent and ability than he showed much of last season, and he’s going to put a lot of that frustration behind him this season.

He’s finished in the top-1o here twice in the last four years, so the course seems to suit him well.

He has pretty strong short game, historically and the irons should come around at some point. He notched some solid finishes in the fall on the DP World late last year and had a top-20 in Hawaii at the Sony Open.

He was junk in his last two starts, but he putted pretty well last week. All things considered, I’ll take a shot on him given how the season is going with bombs cashing all over the place.

He profiles well here and his results shown an affinity for TPC Scottsdale. Why? Why not.