Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars Expert Pick – Thursday, February 29, 2024

WINNIPEG JETS VS. DALLAS STARS EXPERT PICK – The Central Division remains up for grabs, and Winnipeg appears to be surging at the right time. The Jets arrive in Texas as winners of four straight and have regained the lead after Dallas and Colorado stumbled last week. Winnipeg’s actually scoring for a change, and the defense hasn’t relaxed in light of the offense finally doing its part.

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But if they’re going to take control of this division, the Jets have to find a way to solve the Stars. Dallas has dominated the past two calendar years, beating Winnipeg in six of eight meetings. That includes both meetings this season, as Dallas won a 3-2 decision in mid-November in Manitoba and then blanked the Jets by 2-0 for their second win over their northern rival.

The Stars do not come in with momentum, as they stumbled badly on their eastern swing. Dallas has dropped six of seven and hasn’t scored more than twice in any of its past five contests. That might not be as big a deal in this game given that teams usually don’t get more than two on Connor Hellebuyck, but if the Jets’ offense is taking care of business, two isn’t going to cut it.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Winnipeg Jets (37-15-5 SU, 33-24 PL)	O6	+1.5	O5.5	+115
Dallas Stars (35-17-9 SU, 22-39 PL)	-1.5	-1.5	U5.5	-135

Puck Drop

When: Thursday, February 29, 2024, at 8 PM EST

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas

TV: ESPN+

Public Bets: 57% on Winnipeg 

Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars In-Season Trends

Here’s one of the great ironies in life: when it comes to basketball, John Fredericks is a known fan of offense, offense and more offense. In his first foray into hockey, John Fredericks has spent most of the year backing the Jets, who themselves have spent most of the year needing a GPS to find the goal.

Winnipeg has played 30-19-8 to the UNDER, despite the number usually getting set at 5.5 instead of 6.5. However, the Peggers have undergone a recent surge on the offensive end. Winnipeg has scored at least three goals in six straight games, winning five of them. They’re still mostly hitting or pushing the over; just two of their past 18 games have seen more than six goals.

Just as the Fighting John Fredericks are surging on offense, the Stars have hit a slump. Dallas has played 36-25 to the over, but the Stars have gone five straight to the under because they haven’t scored more than twice in any of them. They haven’t exactly faced world-class goaltenders either; Ottawa and the Islanders both rank in the bottom five in the East in goals allowed and the Stars could only manage three goals combined against them.

Players to Watch

Jake Oettinger hasn’t been getting the job done as of late. He’s lost four of his past five starts and has given up four goals or more in all four defeats. Allowing four to Edmonton or Colorado is understandable, but Oettinger also conceded four to Ottawa. He seems to be suffering from some kind of All-Star hangover, as he’s not been himself in the second half of February.

What’s been different for Winnipeg in this stretch? Josh Morrissey. The Jets’ defenseman has found holes in opposing defenses and set up 11 goals in the past five games. Right now, Morrissey is hot, and he’s likely to be involved in the action in some way.

The Pick

Now’s the time for the Jets for one reason: the Stars’ defense isn’t playing well. Over the teams’ past 25 meetings, the Jets are 13-0 when they get four on the board and 1-11 when they score three or less.

With the Jets surging on offense, Oettinger struggling between the pipes and Connor Hellebuyck still doing the job in goal on the Winnipeg half, the Peggers look like they’re the better side. Throw in Morrissey’s surge, and there’s plenty of value on the visitors. 

Dan’s Picks

Winnipeg ML  Josh Morrissey Over 0.5 Points