Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars Game 4 Expert Pick 

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS. DALLAS STARS GAME 4 EXPERT PICK — If Tuesday was any indication, this series might already be over. The Stars played without discipline throughout Game 3, and the Golden Knights took full advantage in rolling over Dallas on the road. Jamie Benn’s now facing discipline for his cross check on Mark Stone, and the Stars seemed lost without him on the ice, giving up two goals on the penalty assessed to Benn. 

So now the Golden Knights find themselves one win away from their second Stanley Cup Finals appearance in just five years, and the Stars seem to be circling the drain. Dallas played well enough to win in Vegas, but Game 3 was unquestionably a giveaway. The Golden Knights didn’t even generate much offense for the game, taking only 16 shots for the entire contest, but Dallas had no response. If the Stars don’t play a much smarter Game 4, this series is finished. 

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Vegas Golden Knights  (62-25-9 SU, 52-44 PL)	O5.5	+1.5	O5.5	+105
Dallas Stars  (55-25-18 SU, 54-44 PL)	-1.5	-1.5	U5.5	-125

Puck Drop 

When: Thursday, May 25th at 8:00 p.m. EDT 

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas  

Public Bets: 64% on Florida 

Public Money: 55% on Florida 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 24th, 2023 

Vegas vs. Dallas In-Season Trends 

For whatever reason, goals just do not happen in the American Airlines Center in this matchup. Granted, these are defensive teams, so most of their matchups play under, but there have been a few overs when the teams meet in Nevada. Not so in Texas, as the UNDER has cashed in seven straight meetings between the teams. 

The Stars also might be running into the wall that comes with facing the upper echelon in this postseason. Dallas had kind of a charmed life in the playoffs, as Minnesota was a lower-level opponent and Seattle knocked out Colorado before the Stars had to face the champions. Vegas has proven a different beast, and Dallas hasn’t really responded against top-level competition. Over their past eight games against teams above .600, the Stars have just one win. If they can’t step up their game in a big way, they’re not going to get another chance. 

Players to Watch 

With Benn suspended, Jason Robertson has to keep stepping up. He scored in each of the first two games, and Dallas needs to rely on him to keep the scoring coming. Vegas did give up 34 looks at the goal in Game 3, so Dallas is getting chances. Robertson has to make them count. 

On the Vegas side, Jonathan Marchessault continues his assault at the net. The Golden Knights’ center has scored five goals in his past four games, including the opening goal last time out. Vegas has yet to lose in the postseason when it lights the lamp first, and given how Dallas responded last time, an early goal could put this game to bed. 

The Pick 

Much like Carolina and Florida, this is all about how Dallas responds to its situation. Unlike the Hurricanes, who have been more unlucky than anything, the Stars got dominated last time out. Dallas’ meltdown likely has Vegas thinking that it’s time to step on the gas and try to end this series here and now. 

The Stars need much more than what they’ve shown in the first three games, and without Benn, I do not see it. As long as Vegas keeps its poise, it should finish the job. 

Dan’s Picks

Golden Knights ML  Under 5.5  Golden Knights ML First Period

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