UFC Vegas 79: Three Best Moneyline Bets
Mohammed Usman (9-2) vs Jake Collier (13-9)
UFC VEGAS 79: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – The younger brother of Kamaru, Mohammed is looking to carve a path of his own in the UFC as he has started out 2-0 thus far after winning The Ultimate Fighter.
Unlike his brother, he primarily looks to strike, using a low-volume kickboxing game from distance to pick apart his opponents. Although he knocked out Zac Pauga two fights back, he doesn’t normally showcase big power.
In his last fight is when we saw a wrestling-heavy approach from him due to the stylistic clash with him and the kickboxer that was Justin Tafa.
Collier has clearly taken this fight very seriously considering he has come in 10 pounds lighter than he normally has since moving to heavyweight and looks to be in solid shape.
He is a solid all-around fighter, but I really think coming in at the heavyweight limit hindered him from showcasing his full skillset. When he was a middleweight, he was a good fighter that had some UFC staying power. Now with his back against the wall, it looks like he’s taking it as seriously as he ever has.
Usman may be the scarier of the two and the one with momentum on his side, but I feel Collier has enough tools all-around to give Usman problems.
From Collier being a higher-volume and more well-rounded striker, to even being able to thwart Usman’s wrestling offense, I feel Collier can land more damage and put Usman in uncomfortable positions. Especially when this fight goes late. If Collier has truly improved his conditioning, Usman could be in for a rough night after a close start
The Pick: Jake Collier +115
Dan Argueta (9-1) vs Miles Johns (13-2)
One of the lesser talked about prospects, I’m surprised Argueta is not getting more shine especially with the record he has.
His lone professional defeat came when he took a short notice opportunity to get into the UFC up a weight class against a more experienced and much bigger Damon Jackson.
However, Argueta is a fighter that has historically surrounded himself with high level training partners and coaches, which is why he has been so successful in his career. His wrestling and cardio are high level and I think will be very difficult for most opponents to keep up with.
Johns looked like a hot prospect coming into the UFC, but after six fights under the bright lights, he has only accrued a 4-2 record.
The fighters he has beat over in the UFC are no longer in the promotion, while the fighters he has been losing to seem to be top 10-15 fighters.
Johns has a decent wrestling game, but also does a solid job of using his speed, power, and explosivity to land good shots on the feet. The flaw I’d say in his game is his cardio, as he often slows down late against guys that are able to dictate the pace.
The last point I touched upon in the background of Johns is what I think will be most important and the deciding factor of this fight. I think Argueta will be the one setting the pace and pushing Johns for the full 15 minutes.
This fight may be close early, but I expect Argueta to pull away with this fight down the stretch. I feel his wrestling could be better than Johns and the striking could be a wash. Regardless, look for Argueta to be in control of the pace of the fight and be the one in the driver seat, winning a decision.
The Pick: Dan Argueta -175
Ricardo Ramos (16-4) vs Charles Jourdain (14-6-1)
Trading wins and losses over his last five fights, Ramos has not panned out to be the fighter most expected him to be.
He was very highly touted from the regional scene but has fallen on tough times against some of the more experienced and tougher opponents the UFC has to offer.
He is a BJJ black belt with an educated striking game. His durability has been the downfall of his UFC run thus far as two of his three UFC losses have come by finish. Wrestling has been a solid addition to his game, to help him preserve his durability, but also to control opponents on the mat with his high level BJJ game.
Jourdain has become a fan favorite over the last couple of years due to his entertaining style and thirst for wars with his opponent.
He is a flashy striker but loves to throw down in the pocket when his opponents are willing.
Thus comes the flaw in his game, which is the defensive grappling. Opponents that have gotten their hand raised over him have been able to ground him and outwork him from the top position. He is crafty with his submission game, but at this level it will be very hard for him to pull off submissions from his back.
I was happy to cash Nathaniel Wood as an underdog to Jourdain last year and I hope to be able to do the same here with Ramos.
I expect we’ll see Ramos mix in his grappling and from there it will likely be too difficult for Jourdain to get much offense off.
Obviously, there is some concern regarding Jourdain finding the chin of Ramos in between the grappling moments, but at an underdog price, I feel Ramos is more skilled all around and if all I’m worried about is him getting knocked out, I’m fine with this shot.
It’s MMA at the end of the day, but it’s clear to me that Ramos is the more skilled fighter and has more paths to victory