UFC Vegas 78 Draft: DFS Lineup
There are two mainstays to play DFS for MMA; DraftKings and FanDuel. Each has its own scoring rules and variations, but they are similar. Here are DraftKings’ scoring rules and FanDuel’s scoring rules. I will always list fighters I think should be selected as MVP at the top and will use DraftKings budget to model my projections.
Marcus McGhee $9,600
McGhee is fighting J.P. Buys in the featured event on the prelims. Buys is a phenomenal matchup for the 33-year-old McGhee. The 27-year-old Buys has lost three fights in a row, two by knockout and a decision loss. He also has a submission loss prior to the UFC. McGhee is a fast, powerful striker who is also a capable grappler.
He lands 3.55 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.84. Buys ratio of strikes landed and absorbed is 1.89-3.02 significant strikes. McGhee should be able to stuff any takedown attempt and find his chin quickly.
Josh Fremd $9,400
Fremd has a predictable opponent in Jamie Pickett. Pickett is 34 years old and 13-9 in his career. He is well-rounded but usually lets his opponent control the octagon, and his striking defense is lacking.
He lands 3.16 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.23 significant strikes. He has also been submitted four times in his career, a problem in this fight. Fremd has solid grappling, which may make Pickett second-guess attempting a takedown. On the feet, Fremd will pressure Pickett and overwhelm him. Fremd is a solid pick due to his matchup.
Vicente Luque $8,000
Luque is a slight underdog against Rafael Dos Anjos in an even matchup. He has solid takedown defense and does not accept being on his back. Even if Dos Anjos is successful, he can not hold him there for long periods. Luque has a speed and reach advantage when the fight is standing. He will also be the younger fighter by seven years.
Dos Anjos is nearing the end of his career, and Luque is trying to jumpstart his after back-to-back losses. Luque should have more motivation and more technique in this fight.
Julianna Miller $7,900
Julianna Miller is opening this card against a debutant, Luana Santos. Miller won season 30 of The Ultimate Fighter, but has had mixed results in the UFC since then. She beat Brogan Walker by TKO and lost to Veronica Hardy by decision in March. Both women have only been in a handful of fights, but Miller has faced better competition.
Santos is a grappler who last won in March via first-round submission. Miller is the underdog according to the odds, but should be able to rely on her experience to get the victory.
Isaac Dulgarian $7,700
Dulgarian is making his UFC debut against Francis Marshall in the featherweight division. There is not much film on Dulgarian because he has won every fight (professional and amateur) in the first round. He has solid wrestling and good ground-and-pound but little experience.
Marshall is a well-rounded fighter that is 1-1 in the UFC. He is not the most experienced fighter, with only eight professional fights. Marshall performed poorly in his last outing, and Dulgarian’s skillset is unknown. He is worth taking a chance on against this opponent.
Josh Parisian $7,400
The only heavyweight bout on the card features two plodding bruisers. Parisian is more likely to switch levels than his opponent, Martin Buday. Buday is on a four-fight winning streak since entering the UFC but gets hit too often for a heavyweight.
His ratio of strikes landed to absorbed is 5.22-5.33 significant strikes. Parisian is not the most powerful in the division, but he has enough to end this fight when he finds Buday’s chin.