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UFC Vegas 76 Main Event: Three Best Prop Bets

UFC Vegas 76 Main Event: Three Best Prop Bets

UFC VEGAS 76 MAIN EVENT: THREE BEST PROP BETS – Sean Strickland is headlining another card at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. He will fight Abus Magomedov, in a middleweight matchup that could transform the division’s complexion overnight.

Damir Ismagulov and Grant Dawson will face off in a ranked lightweight bout in the co-main event. The prelims start at 4 p.m. EDT, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN.

Strickland v Magomedov – The Props

Sean Strickland is one of the busiest fighters on the roster. He has fought four times since the beginning of 2022 and is on his way to consecutive years with three bouts.

He is also 6-2 since his move up to middleweight, with his two losses coming against Alex Pereira and Jared Cannonier, who are both top three in the rankings.

Contrastingly, Abus Magomedov (25-4-1 & 20 KOs) has only fought once in the UFC. That was back in September 2022, and took the form of a 19-second knockout victory over Dustin Stoltzfus.

Admittedly, Magomedov still has lots of experience, and isn’t without his backers on here either. But Strickland is a league apart from the opposition he’s faced to date. That makes him a clear favorite in current moneyline markets:

UFC Vegas 76 Main Event: Tale of the tape

Strickland to Win by KO/TKO +300

Magomedov’s win last September also came after a two-year layoff. Overall, he has only had 19 seconds of cage time since the beginning of 2021. Adding further to the pressure, the UFC Vegas 76 Main Event is also the German’s first headliner.

A knockout PFL defeat to Louis Taylor in 2018 serves as a warning as to what could go wrong here, though Magomedov has won his three fights since then.

While not known for knockouts himself, Strickland is a tough test for anyone in the division. However, a tally of 10 KOs in his career (including three in the UFC) is still respectable.

Ultimately, the difference maker here is Strickland’s vastly richer experience of five-round fights. Four of his last five bouts have gone for twenty-five minutes:

UFC Vegas 76 Main Event favorite Sean Strickland's last five bouts

Strickland additionally landed 150+ significant strikes in each of those bouts. Meanwhile, Magomedov has not been past the third round in his career, and has not had a chance to show if he has good cardio.

All this means Magomedov will surely have some nerves coming into his maiden headliner. And throughout UFC history, emotions have often proven to be as draining and tiring as any physical activity.

In turn, Strickland can easily wear him down and get a TKO in the later rounds of this fight, especially if Magomedov gets tired.


Strickland to Win by Decision +180

If Magomedov has a good gas tank, which is likely, Strickland taking the fight on the scorecards is the most likely outcome. Magomedov is a capable wrestler, although it seems as if he would rather stand with most people.

Still, his cardio should be in a good place due to the stamina required for wrestling. Unfortunately for him, Strickland is also a solid wrestler with an 85% takedown defense rate. He averages about one takedown landed per three rounds as well.

So if Magomedov has trouble landing strikes on Strickland, he may also find it difficult to take him down. Strickland can also control where this fight takes place but needs to make good decisions during the bout.

FUN My Pillow

Strickland to Win by Unanimous Decision +200

Despite being the moneyline underdog, Magomedov might have some success early in this fight as Strickland finds his range. Once he finds the distance, he should start offering all kinds of combinations. He rolls well with punches and does not get hit cleanly often.

Magomedov’s best chance is to wrestle or land more volume than Strickland. Yet, both things will be hard to accomplish, given Strickland’s recent performances. This fight could look similar to Strickland’s last bout with Nassourdine Imavov, which ended in a unanimous decision victory:

Strickland is a talker inside the cage for sure, but it has not gotten him in trouble recently either. If he remains smart and Magomedov does not tire, then Strickland should get his hand raised.

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