UFC Vegas 69: Main Event Three Best Prop Bets
Jessica Andrade to Win by KO/TKO/DQ +130
Jessica Andrade is filling in for Taila Santos on 10-day notice and will take on the up-and-coming prospect, Erin Blanchfield. You can read our prediction for the main event here.
Andrade just fought Lauren Murphy at UFC 283, which occurred less than one month ago, and won a decision after putting on a striking clinic.
Erin Blanchfield is an excellent wrestler and was preparing for Santos, who is also an elite wrestler. That could present problems against Andrade, who is exceedingly strong and an exceptional striker.
Blanchfield is only 23 years old and does not have great striking but has fantastic chain wrestling. This fight will be a big step up for Blanchfield, who will be at a disadvantage with experience heading into this one.
Andrade will be the shorter woman, per usual, but that did not matter in her previous fight, as she landed 231 significant strikes in a three-round bout.
She will be three inches shorter and have a four-inch disadvantage in the reach department. She prepared for a striking match in her camp for her last fight and did not have much time to prepare for Blanchfield’s wrestling.
The short-notice nature of this fight makes it an intriguing matchup as each woman was preparing for a much different opponent.
Under 1.5 total rounds +165
This fight can go one of two ways; either Andrade gets taken down by Blanchfield and dominated on the mat, or Andrade puts on another masterclass in striking.
In Andrade’s most recent loss, Valentina Shevchenko took her down seven times before being bashed with elbows from the crucifix position in the second round.
Andrade got to her feet within seconds after most of those takedowns, but Shevchenko would use the body lock to take her down again until she trapped her arm. Getting up will be the key, as Blanchfield will undoubtedly shoot takedowns and attempt to control from the top.
Takedowns Will Be Key
Blanchfield averages four takedowns landed per 15 minutes and will continue to alter her takedown if the first fails.
Andrade averages 2.72 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has defended 73% of takedowns, so her grappling is also world-class.
If Blanchfield cannot keep her on her back, Andrade will pour on the volume and overwhelm Blanchfield on the feet.
Andrade lands 6.80 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.26 strikes. She also possesses the power that few women have, and Blanchfield likely has not seen.
Blanchfield to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission +300
If Andrade can stay off her back, she is the superior striker despite being the shorter fighter. She is almost always at a reach disadvantage, but it does not seem to matter because she is an elite striker.
Blanchfield lands 5.79 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.45 strikes per minute, but most of her work occurs on top of her opponent.
While standing, Andrade should be the dominant fighter, and her experience edge should show itself. Blanchfield could become discouraged if she cannot take Andrade to the mat, and the entire time Andrade will be accumulating damage. Andrade may even look for a takedown to land some ground and pound.
Bet on the Vet
Erin Blanchfield is almost 24 years old and last fought in November 2022. She may have developed her game immensely in that amount of time as she continues to grow in the sport.
The saying is you can’t teach old dogs new tricks, but young fighters can evolve a lot, especially with the right coaching. As stated above, this fight could go in two directions, and the oddsmakers would agree.
This fight is almost a pick’em due to Andrade replacing Santos on short notice, and the value of this bet is too good to pass. If Blanchfield gets Andrade on her back, she can get to a crucifix position, as she did in her last fight against Molly McCann.
Andrade has a superior ground game to McCann and will likely be harder to submit, so a ground-and-pound finish is not out of the question. When Andrade cannot get back to her feet, she becomes a much easier fighter to finish, especially if Blanchfield can match her strength and move into a dominant position.
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