UFC Paris Main Event: Three Best Props
UFC PARIS MAIN EVENT: THREE BEST PROPS – The UFC is on the road for this week’s fight night card. The Accor Arena in Paris, France, will host the UFC and their hometown fighter, Ciryl Gane, as he takes on Serghei Spivac in a heavyweight contender bout. Rose Namajunas also makes her flyweight debut against Manon Fiorot in the co-main event. The prelims begin at 12:30 p.m. EDT, and the main card starts at 3 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
Ciryl Gane is 1-2 in his last three fights, but both losses came in title bouts against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. He is 11-2 as a professional, with wins over Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, and Alexander Volkov.
Serghei Spivac is on a three-fight winning streak, with his latest victory against Derrick Lewis in February. He is 16-3 as a professional, with his last loss coming against Tom Aspinall in 2021.
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Gane to Win by KO/TKO +120
Ciryl Gane is not the typical heavyweight fighter. He is one of the better athletes in the promotion and a high-level kickboxer. He uses movement and cardio to compile lots of strikes landed against his opponents.
His one weakness, exploited by Ngannou and Jones, is his wrestling. He has only defended 45% of takedowns in the UFC. Spivac will present a tough challenge for him this weekend. He averages 5.05 takedowns landed per three rounds with 65% accuracy. Fortunately for Gane, each round of the fight starts standing.
Gane is an underrated grappler with three submission victories on his record. Jones was able to submit him because he used the fence to restrict the movement of Gane when he applied the guillotine. Jones is also one of the best fighters of all time.
Spivac is not in the same realm as Jon Jones. Gane should be able to stand up if he gets taken down and has the grappling defense to avoid any of Spivac’s submission attempts.
Ciryl Gane is the far superior striker when standing. He lands 5.08 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.25 strikes per minute. He is tremendous at staying out of range and working behind his jab and kicks. Spivac is durable but not as athletic as Gane. Gane should be able to light him up from range and compile enough damage to finish Spivac.
Gane to Win by Decision +750
Serghei Spivac has seen the judge’s scorecards on three occasions in the UFC and won two. Ciryl Gane has had four UFC bouts go the distance, including two five-round main events.
He can perform for five hard rounds while striking from range and grappling as he did in his unanimous decision loss to Ngannou. Gane is in phenomenal shape and can use his cardio to his advantage.
Spivac is tough and will not quit on himself, but Gane’s pace is difficult to match, especially when he lands heavy shots from a distance. Spivac’s only chance to win this fight is via wrestling, but Gane has the defense to stop him. Gane’s path to victory is via knockout or decision and is a solid value for the decision prop.
Gane to Win by KO/TKO in Round 3 +1100
When Gane fought Tai Tuivasa, he landed 110 significant strikes before knocking him out in the third round. This matchup with Spivac could look somewhat similar.
Spivac does not absorb the amount of strikes as Tuivasa but will face many of the same problems as him. Gane will have a three-inch reach advantage, which allows him to stay outside the range of any Spivac power punches.
Spivac will have to work his way inside to land a strike, and Gane will make him pay with elbows and accurate strikes. Eventually, the damage will accumulate, and Gane could finish him in the same round he did Tuivasa.