UFC Mexico: Three Best Moneyline Bets
Jesus Aguilar (9-2) vs Mateus Mendonca (10-2)
UFC MEXICO: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS –Â Looking to follow up a vicious 17-second knockout victory last time out, Aguilar comes into this fight as a slight underdog.
He is a power puncher with a smothering top game, something he uses his strength to excel at. Nasty chokes are in his arsenal as well, but it’s ability to keep up a pace and pressure most opponents are unable to keep up with.
Mendonca relies heavily on early finishes to get his hand raised as it seems he doesn’t have the best ability to manage his gas tank. He throws hard early with his nasty muay thai combinations and sells out hard for low percentage submission attempts. If he is unable to complete those, his opponents normally start to take over and get him out of there.
There’s been some love/hate on Aguilar based on the line movement this week as I’ve seen him at +100 and as high as +140. I personally took a shot on him at +120 earlier this week and am still content with him as the slight dog. Look for his pressure, durability, and cardio to pay off as he finishes Mendonca in the second or third round.
The Pick: Jesus Aguilar +105
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Manuel Torres (14-2) vs Chris Duncan (11-1)
Torres is a heavy hitter who has finished both of his UFC opponents in the first round. He throws everything into his strikes, almost to a detriment considering he finds himself falling over his shots most of the time. Luckily, his opponents thus far have had some questionable durability, hence why he continues to come out on top.
Showing significant improvements over his last couple of fights, Duncan has benefitted from moving his training camp down to American Top Team. Initially, Duncan was just a power puncher, but he now has a solid understanding of how to mix his whole game together and incorporate takedowns to be more effective.
I suspect we’ll see Duncan survive the early onslaught of Torres by grinding him on the cage and looking for takedowns. This will open opportunities for Duncan to take over in the second round and put Torres away. Public bettors normally put a lot of emphasis on guys that finish fights early, leaving out the idea of what they’ll have to do if fights get into deeper waters. This is one of those fights where I believe they’ll be forced to rip up their tickets.
The Pick: Chris Duncan +170
Yair Rodriguez (18-4) vs Brian Ortega (15-3)
Coming up short in his title shot back in July, Rodriguez hopes to establish himself as a top contender again, especially with there being a new champion at the top of the division.
Rodriguez is a crafty and flashy striker who has vastly improved his ground game given how aggressive he is off his back. Don’t get me wrong though, he is most effective when he can get into his groove in the striking realm and landing his big shots.
Ortega is looking to make a successful comeback after his last fight ended due to an injury he suffered to his shoulder. It is the BJJ black belt of Ortega that has allowed him to be so successful in the UFC, but his lack of activity over the last handful of years will put him behind more active featherweights who have been garnering high level experience.
When these two first threw down in July 2022, Rodriguez did a solid job of stopping Ortega’s takedowns and touching him up on the feet. Rodriguez should be successful in that approach once again and even if he finds himself on the mat, I think he has made enough improvements to stall out on the mat and not get finished. On the feet, it should be one-sided traffic with Rodriguez getting off and eventually finding the finish.