UFC London Main Event: Three Best Prop Bets
UFC LONDON MAIN EVENT: THREE BEST PROP BETS – The O2 Arena in London hosts another UFC event with plenty of native fighters. Tom Aspinall and Marcin Tybura headline the card in Aspinall’s return from injury. Crowd-favorite Molly McCann is in the co-main event, which follows Nathaniel Wood and Andre Fili in an entertaining featherweight bout. The prelims begin at noon EDT, and the main card starts at 3 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
UFC London Main Event – Tale of the Tape
Tom Aspinall injured his right knee in his fight against Curtis Blaydes. He injured himself on July 22 last year, so he returns one year after tearing his MCL and meniscus and damaging his ACL. Before the loss, he was on a five-fight winning streak in the UFC.
Marcin Tybura is 24-7 as a professional and 11-6 in the UFC. He is on a two-fight winning streak after losing a unanimous decision to Alexander Volkov. He and Aspinall have identical lengths in reach, but Tybura stands two inches shorter.
Be sure to check out the excellent preview from Manpreet Jhass, as well
Aspinall to Win by Submission +360
Tom Aspinall was on his way to a title shot before injuring his knee in the first round against Curtis Blaydes. He was considered one of the best heavyweight prospects and is currently in the top five heavyweight rankings. He has crisp boxing and solid grappling. He has won three fights by submission and nine by KO/TKO and has never gone to the scorecards. He has devastating kicks and power in his hands.
Tybura is a step down in competition for Aspinall, which makes sense due to the injury. Tybura is solid in every aspect but does not have elite athleticism. He relies on his toughness and grit to wear down his opponents. He has gone to a decision in 12 fights, with his last three bouts going the distance.
Aspinall is faster and more athletic than Tybura but has questions surrounding his knee. It is his first time in the octagon since injuring it, so it is not foolish to be somewhat skeptical. He said that he had problems in that knee prior, and it was only a matter of time before something like that happened. He would not jeopardize his position in the rankings if he were not confident in his health. He can win by knockout or submission in this matchup, which makes this the value play.
The odds for this prop are as low as +250 at some sportsbooks, so this number is a steal.
Aspinall to Win by KO/TKO -150
The odds for this method of victory are not the most favorable, but given the matchup, it makes complete sense. Tybura has never been submitted in his career but has got knocked out four times. He is 37 and nearing the end of his career, which means his chin may not hold up.
The odds for this prop is -165 at some outlets, which gives this number a slight value. Aspinall will be in front of his home crowd and may want to put on a show.
Few props have value because of the advantageous matchup for Aspinall, but this prop has super value. Tybura has never got submitted, but he has never faced a grappler at Aspinall’s level. Aspinall can submit him, but he may take some time to test his knee.
Tybura has a great gas tank for a heavyweight and has only been stopped in the first round once. The odds for this prop are as low as +750 on BetOnline and +1200 on DraftKings. The value of this prop is enormous, but limit the risk by placing a small wager.