UFC Las Vegas: Yan vs. Dvalishvili Three Best Prop Bets
UFC LAS VEGAS: YAN VS. DVALISHVILI THREE BEST PROP BETS – The UFC is returning to Las Vegas, but this time the event will take place at The Theater at Virgin Hotels rather than the UFC Apex.
As a result, fans can expect to see the larger octagon instead of the smaller cage typically used at the Apex. Headlining the fight card will be top bantamweight contenders Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili. The main card will start at 6 p.m. EST on ESPN+. You can click here to read Tommy Takedown’s main event predictions.
Petr Yan has lost three of his last four fights, moving his record to 16-4. The first was a disqualification due to an illegal knee which allowed Aljamain Sterling to secure the belt. He lost to Sterling again and then Sean O’Malley, both via decision. He could cement himself as the second contender in the division behind O’Malley now that Henry Cejudo is back in the mix.
Merab Dvalishvili is entering this fight on an eight-fight win streak, with his most recent win coming against Jose Aldo. At 32 years old, he is two years older than Yan and will be one inch shorter with a one-inch reach advantage over Yan.
Dvalishvili to Win by Decision +300
Both men fight to the final bell in most of their fights.
Dvalishvili has gone to a decision in 14 of his 19 (74%) fights, while Yan has gone the distance in 11 of his 20 (55%) fights. They are both in elite condition and should have no problem going five rounds.
Dvalishvili is a relentless wrestler who never stops moving forward. He averages 6.54 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and looks to gain control time over his opponent. He also trains with Aljamain Sterling, who has been in the cage with Yan for over eight rounds, so he should be aware of Yan’s capabilities.
Yan is a skilled striker, particularly in boxing, landing 5.31 significant strikes per minute at a 53% accuracy rate while absorbing 4.03 strikes.
He should have the upper hand when this fight is standing, but Dvalishvili will always try to take him down. Dvalishvili lands 4.21 significant strikes per minute at only 40% accuracy while absorbing 2.31 strikes.
His safest path to victory will be to grind out a decision on the mat, similar to his training partner Sterling’s successful title defense.
Fight to be Won by Split or Majority Decision +400
This bout will undoubtedly be competitive, as Yan is a solid wrestler in his own right.
He lands 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 90% takedown defense. Yan is hard to take down but has shown little urgency in trying to stand up, as shown in the second Sterling fight.
Sterling is a dangerous submission artist, especially when he is on the back, so he might take more risk trying to stand against Dvalishvili, who is not known for his submission threat.
On the feet, Yan will be where he can win the fight and will likely land volume. This fight could easily be a back-and-forth affair in which Yan wins some rounds with his striking, and Dvalishvili wins others with his wrestling and control. It is also heavily favored (-200) to go the distance, so there is value in this prop bet.
Dvalishvili Moneyline +215
This fight is much closer to a pick ‘em than the odds suggest. This isn’t a prop bet, but there is value here with much less risk than a method of victory bet.
It is not likely that this fight stops inside the distance, but, if it does, it is not a bad idea to bet the money line. Yan has lost by decision three times in his career, and his other loss came via disqualification.
Styles make fights, and this fight is a clash of styles. Dvalishvili is arguably the most conditioned man in the UFC and will not go away until the final bell. He is a live underdog with solid value.