UFC Jacksonville Main Event Prop Bets – Top Three Picks
UFC JACKSONVILLE MAIN EVENT PROP BETS – TOP THREE PICKS – An up-and-coming featherweight prospect looks to make his name known as he receives his first main event in his young career.
Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria will headline the event in Jacksonville, Florida. This card will be aired on ABC at 3 p.m. EDT, with the prelims scheduled to air on ESPN at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
Josh Emmett is 18-3 in his career and is 38-years-old. He most recently lost to Yair Rodriguez in an interim title bout in February. He has six knockout victories and 10 via decision.
Ilia Topuria is 13-0 as a professional, with five coming in the UFC. His most recent fight was a submission victory over Bryce Mitchell in December. He is a rising star in the sport at just 26 years old.
Topuria to Win by KO/TKO +190
This matchup is excellent matchmaking by the UFC and makes total sense. Josh Emmett just lost his chance to fight Alexander Volkanovski for the title and is looking for his quickest way back because he is near the end of his career.
At 38, he only has one good run left and is in one of the most talent-stacked divisions in the promotion. A win over Topuria would go a long way in getting him back in the title conversation, but it is also an awful matchup for him.
Emmett’s Ground Game
Topuria, on the other hand, has to see Emmett as his easiest path into the top five of the rankings.
Emmett’s ground game is not on the same level as Topuria’s, and he is 12 years older. Emmett has defended 58% of takedowns in the UFC but averages 1.07 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
Topuria averages 2.45 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has defended 92%. Topuria’s game plan should focus on getting Emmett to the mat to negate his power standing.
Given his track record in the UFC, he will probably get the knockout as he has done to three of his five UFC opponents. Topuria also has decent striking, which is why he is such a heavy favorite. He could win the fight standing but has an advantage in grappling.
Topuria to Win by Submission +160
Ilia Topuria has all the confidence in the world. He has handled every opponent the UFC has given him with ease. He has battled on the feet and shown his grappling prowess.
Josh Emmett has a puncher’s chance against Topuria and has lots of power for the division.
Emmett needs to clip him early because the longer the fight goes, the smaller chance Emmett has.
Topuria is going to push Emmett on the feet and dominate him in wrestling. Emmett showed in his last fight that he could be submitted.
Yair Rodriguez used ground and pound to soften Emmett’s defense and eventually caught him. Topuria can use this game plan to find an easy victory.
Topuria to Win by Submission in Round 1 +350
The first round is the most pivotal round in this fight. The total rounds for this fight is a near pick ‘em at 1.5 rounds. The oddsmakers on DraftKings have it set at -700 for this fight not to go the distance.
All the signs lead to this fight ending within the first couple of rounds, which is logical. Either Emmett knocks him out, or Topuria finishes Emmett quickly in some fashion.
Topuria’s likeliest path to victory is by submission, and he has a clear advantage. He should be aggressive early, so this prop is worth a wager. This same method and round are at +250 on DraftKings, so there is value at this price.