UFC Fight Night: Three Best Moneyline Bets
UFC FIGHT NIGHT: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – We’re back for more UFC Kansas City coverage for Saturday’s loaded card that offers terrific value for the veteran fan.
If you’re interested in my main event predictions between Max Holloway and Arnold Allen, you can click here. And don’t forget to take a look at Trent’s best prop plays for the main event.
Let’s get to my best moneyline bets.
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Joselyne Edwards (12-4) vs Lucie Pudilova (14-7)
Coming in with some steam, Edwards looks to rattle off her third straight victory in a row this weekend. Utilizing constant movement and a lot of volume, mainly through kicks, Edwards has been able to outpoint her last two opponents.
Edwards uses her kicks very effectively to keep her opponents at distance, while maintaining good footwork to enforce her range management. Her ground game is decent, but when taken down, she doesn’t have many answers.
In the two losses she suffered before this two-fight winning streak, she got taken down nine times and controlled for close to 23 minutes. It’s obvious what her kryptonite is: it’s on her opponent to implement it or just stay at range and be content with being outpointed.
Pudilova, The Comeback Kid
Pudilova went on a tumultuous 2-5 run in her first run with the UFC. She was cut and managed to put together a 5-1 run on the regional scene before getting called back to the big leagues.
Pudilova has used solid striking throughout her career, but the maturity in her game is shown through the grappling she has implemented in her game.
She recently joined forces with SBG Ireland, and the emphasis seems to be on her wrestling and jiu jitsu. Her last two fights are perfect examples of that. Included in her last two fights was her return to the UFC where she dominated her opponent on the mat and got a second-round finish. She is also actively competing in grappling tournaments between fights which further drives home the point of her maturity.
Who Can Control the Fight?
In fights that involve Edwards, it’s usually on the opponent to dictate how a fight will go. As I said earlier, if Pudilova is content with staying on the outside and getting kicked, she will lose this fight.
However, her emphasis on improving her grappling game leads me to believe she will aggressively look for the takedown and grind Edwards out. I really like this spot for Pudilova as it will be a great experience for her to implement this game plan.
The Pick: Lucie Pudilova -135
Bruna Brasil (8-2-1) vs Denise Gomes (6-2)
Successfully earning her contract in the most recent season of the Contender Series, Brasil brings an intimidating 5’6” frame to the strawweight division.
She is a lengthy striker who loves to operate at distance to keep her opponents at bay. She’s also a solid striker who gets better with every trip to the cage. Her one downfall has been her grappling, but that has been improving every time she competes.
She can be taken down, but she’s done a great job with reversing or getting back to her feet promptly. When back on her feet, she does a great job letting go with her strikes and finding knockouts.
Gomes and the Big Strike Potential
Similar to her opponent this weekend, Gomes found her way onto the UFC roster by winning in impressive form on the Contender Series.
She took a quick short notice fight against Loma Lookboonmee a month after her victory; unfortunately, she came up on the losing end. Gomes tried implementing a grapple-heavy style, but kept getting thwarted or reversed. She was essentially out-grappled by the ever-evolving style of Lookboonmee.
At her best, Gomes stalks her opponents with big strikes and combinations. Most of her regional foes have fallen in intimidation to her power. It’s clear most of her opponents prefer to ground her as well to avoid the big power.
Line Movement
There has been massive line movement on this fight, as people have bet Gomes down from +180 down to the +130 range.
I can understand why to the naked eye that looks like a great bet because we see the takedown deficiencies in Brasil’s game. However, people are overlooking the improvements that Brasil has been making.
They may also draw confidence from the grapple-heavy approach of Gomes last time around, but overlook how easily it seemed for Lookboonmee to reverse position and get back to her feet or do her own damage from on top.
I expect Brasil to have similar success if she is taken down and to do solid work from on top. One of the more overlooked aspects of WMMA is the strength difference. The 4” height advantage will play in Brasil’s favor as well as her pure strength.
This will play a factor in the grappling sequences where I expect Brasil to get the better of them or be able to find reversals and scrambles easier so she can get back to a space she feels more comfortable. I expect a clean all-around performance here from Brasil.
The Pick: Bruna Brasil -150
Dustin Jacoby (18-6-1) vs Azamat Murzakanov (12-0)
After a near flawless run since his return to the UFC, Jacoby was robbed by the judges in his last fight as he took a loss to Khalil Rountree.
Many believe Jacoby deserved the win, but the judges thought otherwise. Jacoby has used his kickboxing background to outpoint most of his opponents to a 6-0-1 record before the Rountree fight.
He was thoroughly outstriking his opponents by utilizing great distance management and output. A lot of his offense comes from his kicks, which allows him to remain safe at distance.
If his opponents do somehow penetrate the distance, he uses his hands and footwork to get back into a safe zone so he can go back to work with his long jab and kicks.
Murzkanov and the Flying Knee
Murzakanov snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in his UFC debut against Tafon Nchukwi. It was unanimous that Nchukwi had won the first two rounds of their fight without much issue; however, it was a Murzakanov flying knee in the opening minute of round three that saved that fight for him.
Murzakanov uses explosive blitz attacks to crash the pocket to land his big shots. Not often do you see the fundamentals or technical striking approach from him. He relies on wrestling every so often, but his top control could use a lot of work. His cardio seems a little troubling, but he has managed to find that next gear when required to get the job done.
I feel like this is a straightforward fight for Jacoby. He is normally hard to find in terms of the types of attacks Murzakanov likes to use. Especially considering the 5” height and 7” reach advantage Jacoby will be enjoying, I fully expect him to keep Murzakanov at bay with his jab and kicks, allowing the rest of his offense to flow behind it. Look for a clean striking performance over 15 minutes for Jacoby here.