UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida Best Prop Bets
UFC FIGHT NIGHT: ROZENSTRUIK VS. ALMEIDA BEST PROP BETS – Charlotte, North Carolina, will host a UFC Fight Night this weekend as two heavyweights collide. Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida will be the final competitors to enter the octagon on Saturday evening. The event will be in the Spectrum Center, with the prelims beginning at 11:30 a.m. EDT and the main card at 3 p.m. EDT on ESPN and ABC.
Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik recovered from a two-fight losing skid his last time out with a 23-second knockout over Chris Daukaus. He is 13-4 in his career and 7-4 in the UFC, with all his victories coming via knockout.
Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida is 18-2 in his career and undefeated in the UFC. He has fought twice as a heavyweight in the UFC after starting at light heavyweight on Dana White’s Contender Series.
Almeida to Win by Submission -115
When two heavyweights enter the cage, anything can happen. They are big men with lots of power and can knock anyone out, no matter how tough. It is surprising to see the submission method of victory as the favorite, but it makes sense for this fight.
Rozenstruik is a knockout artist and not a wrestler. Almeida averages 6.73 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has 11 submission victories on his record. Almeida’s easiest way to win is to get Rozenstruik to the mat and patiently hunt for submissions.
“Bigi Boy” has yet to land a takedown in the UFC and will have a disadvantage on the mat. He won his fight against Alistair Overeem after being taken down twice, but Overeem was not as aggressive as Almeida will be hunting for submissions. Rozenstruik is not likely to get up from an Almeida takedown, which will likely happen early. The number is not the best, but it is his most likely path to victory.
Almeida to Win by KO/TKO +180
The value prop bet would be Almeida by knockout. He knocked out his last opponent, Shamil Abdurakhimov, after flattening him out and landing heavy shots to the head.
Almeida worked effectively on the mat in the mount position and from back control. He did not look for the submission as hard as usual and used his punches to hurt Abdurakhimov.
While winning via submission is much more probable, a knockout is in play if Rozenstruik can fend off any submission attempts well enough.
Rozenstruik to Win by KO/TKO +475
Rozenstruik has one clear path to victory, and it is knocking Almeida out.
He has done it time and time again to other heavyweights but never as an underdog of +200 or greater. In this bout, he will enter as a big underdog, more so than when he fought Ciryl Gane and Francis Ngannou. Almeida was knocked out once in 2017 (before the UFC), but his wrestling style allows him to take less damage than most.
Rozenstruik will have limited opportunities to land a knockout punch or kick before Almeida locks his hands and secures a takedown, but it is a solid play. When he wins fights, it is by knocking his opponent out, so this is a better number than his +380-money line. If you want to play the Almeida side, playing him to win in round two at +500 odds is the route to play.