UFC 298: Three Best Moneyline Bets
Josh Quinlan (6-1) vs Danny Barlow (7-0)
UFC 298: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – Suffering his first professional loss in his last fight, Quinlan is looking to bounce back and show that he belongs in the UFC. He is a power puncher who has benefitted from knocking out four of his six foes that he defeated.
However, he also has a BJJ black belt he has yet to truly show off in the UFC. It will be interesting to see if he looks to implement that to surprise his opponent this weekend.
Barlow earned his UFC contract with an emphatic first round knockout victory on the Contender Series late last year. This southpaw throws his power hand with such speed, accuracy, and power that he has knocked out four of his seven wins.
He originally comes from a wrestling background but does not show a knack for using that approach as he has been so dangerous simply using his striking.
I suspect the distance-management, reach advantage, and technical striking advantage of Barlow to subdue Quinlan. Quinlan may look to wrestle to change things up, but I think Barlow’s wrestling background will allow him to stay safe in this fight. Keeping this fight upright will let Barlow operate at a distance and realm he feels most comfortable in, somewhere
Quinlan has only known success until his last fight. That success was heavily predicated on him working in the pocket, a spot that Barlow does a great job of staying out of and picking his opponents apart from range.
The Pick: Danny Barlow -185\
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Zhang Mingyang (16-6) vs Brendson Ribeiro (15-5)
Finally making his UFC debut this weekend after impressing the UFC brass in 2022 during a showcase bout on Road to UFC, Mingyang hopes to continue his finishing ways.
He is a tall striker who loves to exchange in the pocket and look to knock his opponents out. Grappling seems to be a bit of a flaw in his game, especially when going against more talented specialists in that realm.
Ribeiro pulled off a massive upset in his contract-clinching effort on the Contender Series. His willingness to exchange in the pocket, even while on his back foot, has made him dangerous in the past and it showed out once again against Bruno Lopes.
Ribeiro normally looks to take his opponents to the mat and destroy them from top position, but he seems just as comfortable on the feet exchanging with big shots. His durability has been a question mark in the past, but he looks to be improving his striking defense and awareness.
I was surprised to see Mingyang in the -140 realm a few days ago, but it seems like the public is becoming privy to Ribeiro’s advantages in this fight, hence the line movement.
I still like Ribeiro in this spot up to -130, although he could end up looking -230 if he uses his grappling approach that he’s shown on the regional scene. Regardless, look for Ribeiro to finish Mingyang within two rounds.
The Pick: Brendson Ribeiro +100
Amanda Lemos (13-3-1) vs Mackenzie Dern (13-4)
Coming up short in her first attempt at capturing UFC gold last time around, Lemos looks to recalibrate herself by getting back to her winning ways. She is a dangerous and threatening striker. Stalking her opponents with forward movement and big power shots, she normally breaks her opponents with her power and finishes them. She also has a nasty choke game if her opponents look to shoot desperation takedowns.
Dern has been unable to find her footing or any consistency over the last few years. She takes this fight on short notice to try and erase the memory of her knockout loss to Jessica Andrade from back in November. We know all about the high-level BJJ black belt Dern holds, but it’s been her lack of takedown success that keeps her from using that BJJ experience. She shows a 14% takedown accuracy rate.
I think Lemos will show good enough takedown defense awareness while landing big shots on Dern, eventually putting her away. It’s hard to trust Dern’s ability to ground the fight which will leave her susceptible to being touched up on the feet, just as she was against Jessica Andrade last time around.
Dern may try taking the approach she did in the Angela Hill fight by rushing the pocket and trying to get Lemos off balance. However, Hill did not present as much threat with her power like Andrade did and I expect it to play out the same.