UFC 296: Three Best Moneyline Bets
Martin Buday (13-1) vs Shamil Gaziev (11-0)
UFC 296: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – One of the brightest prospects on the roster, Buday is now 4-0 since joining the promotion in early 2022.
His grinding pace with relentless pressure has benefited him, frustrating and breaking his opponents. Although he only has one finish in the UFC, he has the perfect style to break opponents and drown them.
His cardio is one of the best in the division as well as his durability, which allows him to take shots many may not be able to, walk through them, and get off on his own offense.
Coming in with an undefeated 11-0 record, Gaziev earned his spot on the roster after finishing his opponent on the Contender Series a couple months back.
He is a grapple-heavy fighter that loves to finish his opponents on the mat, although he has shown the ability to carry heat in his hands when he lets them go. Cardio is a concern for him, especially in the one fight of tape we have of him going the distance, even though he got his hand raised that night.
Gaziev will prove to be a stiff test for Buday, but I fully believe Buday can survive the early onslaught and make Gaziev work more than he has ever worked. That will allow Buday to take over in deep waters and drown Gaziev as he is able to find a late finish to secure a victory.
The Pick: Martin Buday -130
Casey O’Neill (9-1) vs Ariane Lipski (16-8)
Stumbling in her return to the cage earlier this year, O’Neill looks to still be suffering the effects of a major ACL surgery and rehab she had to undergo last year.
She relies a lot on her aggressiveness and ability to pressure her opponents, even though the technical aspects of her game are lacking. She got her first taste of a legit opponent last time around and even though she did not give up on herself, there was a clear gap in skill level.
Lipski is looking career-best since breaking off on her own and not tying herself to a major gym. Her significant other is her head coach, and they seem to have a good thing going.
Lipski has significantly improved her takedown defense which allows her to get off on her handy work which is the best part of her game. She came over from KSW as the Violence Queen and she is now able to tap back into that with her ability to keep fights upright.
O’Neill may be able to make things close with her output and forward movement, but I think Lipski is worth an underdog shot considering the technical striking advantage she will hold.
Lipski should be able to get off on the more significant damage and hopefully that translates to the judges. This fight should be much closer to a pick ‘em, so I have no choice but to take a shot at the dog here.
The Pick: Ariane Lipski +155
Irene Aldana (14-7) vs Karol Rosa (17-5)
Coming off a loss in a title fight last time around, Aldana now looks to rebound and secure her spot near the top of the division.
It was a tough out for her to try and overcome a dominant fighter like Nunes, but she was swept on the scorecards and thoroughly defeated. Aldana is normally a crisp, technical striker who puts together great combinations and uses solid kicks from range.
Her defensive grappling could use some work, but she has shown solid work when on her back, creating get ups and submission opportunities.
Rosa is still looking to find her footing in the UFC, but at 28 years old, it’s clear she has a lot of time to continue improving. She is worthy of being on the roster.
We’ve seen her out-strike opponents, when need be, and she has even relied on grappling when required.
It is all about increasing her urgency earlier in fights which is the reason she has had closely contested fights recently. She is a very strong fighter and now back down at 135lbs we can expect to see a better version of her.
I was surprised to see Aldana near -200 earlier this week as I feel Rosa is a very tough out for her.
If Rosa shows up with the urgency she needs, she can absolutely dictate the pace of the fight as well as where it takes place. I expect Rosa to have a grappling edge and if she relies on that effectively behind her volume-striking, she could put together a better body of work for the judges to favor.