UFC 294: Three Best Moneyline Bets

UFC 294: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – I would like to kick this off by letting you know that this is a very chalk heavy card. So much so that there are only two favorites that are less than -250 favorites. Those two fighters don’t tickle my fancy whatsoever, so look at this week’s article more as a TOP THREE PARLAY PIECES article than a top three moneyline bets article.

With that said, off we go.

Shara Magomedov (11-0) vs Bruno Silva (23-9)

Magomedov

The highly anticipated UFC debut of Bullet finally goes down this weekend and he has a solid matchup to showcase his skills. It seems the look of Magomedov may exceed his actual skillset to a lot of people, but I like what I’ve seen from him. He is an active kicker who moves a lot.

Relying on his speed to counter his opponents once they get frustrated, Magomedov is unlike the usual Magomedovs you are used to. Wrestling is never a part of his gameplan, mainly relying on his reflexes and kicks.

Silva

It seems like Silva has fulfilled this role he is playing this weekend in the past. Specifically, when the UFC matched him up with Alex Pereira. Silva has a wealth of experience, especially against Russians when he was on the come up.

His takedown defense has been stellar, allowing him to showcase the big power he has in his hands. That is often where he does his best work, stalking his opponents with his punching power and normally coming out on top by putting them out cold.

The Pick

This is a great matchup for Magomedov to show off what he is best at. His durability and chin seem to be high level which will allow him to eat some of the counters coming his way. However, for the most part I expect Magomedov to move fluidly at distance while landing a barrage of kicks and punches to keep Silva at bay.

Magomedov is a finisher with 10 of his 11 victories coming inside the distance, but considering the nerves and fighter he is facing here, I expect him to play this safe and stay at distance with his output-heavy style to get his hand raised.

The Pick: Shara Magomedov -280

 

Nathaniel Wood (19-5) vs Muhammad Naimov (9-2)

Wood

It seems the change that Wood needed this entire time was to go up to 145lbs. Since joining this division, he is now 3-0 with very solid wins over fighters like Charles Jourdain and Andre Fili. His speed has been a huge advantage at this weight class, but also his ability to mix in his grappling.

Cardio has been a big focal point of his game too, especially with his last fight coming down to the final round and he was able to land 37 significant strikes.

Naimov

After making a splash in the UFC on short notice by pulling an upset as a massive underdog, Naimov hopes to string more wins together and get going on a roll. Naimov failed on the Contender Series a couple years back but squeaked into the UFC by accepting a short notice fight, which he was losing up until the finish. He doesn’t normally showcase big power with four of his nine wins coming by knockout, he usually implements a grapple heavy approach which sees him slow down tremendously late in fights.

The Pick

I feel Wood is far more skilled than Naimov overall and has the gas tank to put on a solid pace for 15 minutes. People are worried about Wood’s chin, but I believe that was more of an issue in his 135lb days. Now he doesn’t have to worry much about being dehydrated or being weaker, so I expect him to be much safer in this fight than he was previously.

Look for the speed, cardio, and late wrestling from Wood to put him ahead in this fight and get his hand raised on the scorecards.

The Pick: Nathaniel Wood -330

Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1) vs Johnny Walker (21-7)

Ankalaev

Coming up short in his quest for the UFC light heavyweight championship, Ankalaev fought to a draw last time out against Jan Blachowicz for the vacant title. I firmly believe that Ankalaev is the best light heavyweight in the world, once Jon Jones moved up to heavyweight. His discipline with his striking, countering, and knowing when to shoot for takedowns is elite.

People claim he is too low volume in the striking realm, leaving him susceptible to being outpointed. However, that has yet to happen, and he has proven over and over again that he ensures his output makes an impact when he does throw.

Walker

Walker tied his long UFC winning streak when he defeated Anthony Smith last time, now sitting at three straight wins. He seems to finally be comfortable utilizing his physical advantages and playing it smart. It seems the work under John Kavanagh has finally started to pay off.

He isn’t going into overdrive from the first bell anymore, but being a tad bit more patient and ensuring he is making the most of his power when he can. I have question marks about the level of competition he has been defeating recently, but it’s still refreshing to see him reach his potential.

The Pick

Although Walker provides legit resistance here, I still feel Ankalaev can take advantage of the openings that Walker leaves. Most importantly, I expect Ankalaev to get this fight to the mat when need-be, allowing him to enjoy top control and eat minutes off the clock. Look for the counter striking of Ankalaev to keep Walker honest and then the takedowns from Ankalaev to fully take over this fight.

The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev -350