UFC 293: Three Best Moneyline Bets
Jack Jenkins (12-2) vs Chepe Mariscal (14-6)
UFC 293: THREE BEST MONEYLINE BETS – After starting his career 3-2, Jenkins is now on a 9-fight winning streak which includes his UFC contract-earning performance on the Contender Series and now back-to-back wins on the biggest stage in the world.
He makes his third trip to the Octagon this year in hopes of notching another win in front of a hometown crowd. He is a great all-around fighter who many believe only has a leg-kicking game to be proud of.
However, as we saw on his Contender Series performance, he has a smothering wrestling game he can implement when needed. He has solid ground and pound which was how he earned his UFC contract.
There probably won’t ever be another fighter who had to face as many killers on the regional scene before finally making their debut like Mariscal.
Mariscal competed against eight former or current UFC fighters before making his short notice debut earlier this year. Obviously coming up short against most of them was the reason for the minor speed bumps on his route to the UFC, he finally got enough respect to make it to the big show.
He is a scrappy fighter with a solid gas tank and a plethora of high-level experience. Look for solid wrestling, cardio, and pace from this Elevation Fight Team product.
Although many people may think this line is a tad wide, I think there is a lot of recency bias with how Mariscal performed against Trevor Peek.
I don’t think Peek is that great, but a lot of people were sold on him as a solid prospect, which is why I was able to cash on Mariscal as a solid underdog that night.
However, Jenkins is a budding prospect who showed he can hang with the best of them, especially in his last win against Jamall Emmers. Look for Jenkins to cripple Mariscal with leg kicks and mix in takedowns to win at least the first two rounds on route to a decision victory.
The Pick: Jack Jenkins -200
Tyson Pedro (9-4) vs Anton Turkalj (8-2)
One of the biggest busts in recent UFC memory, it seemed like the UFC put a lot of eggs in the Pedro basket, but he continues to come up short in crucial spots.
The betting public is normally very high on Pedro, and they were forced to rip up their tickets last time against Modestas Bukauskas.
Pedro is a solid finisher against guys that aren’t on his level, but anyone around his skill level he struggles against. He is a mediocre striker with decent power but has a crafty submission game when he can get dominant positions.
Having been given two of the toughest outs in the light heavyweight division through his UFC career thus far, Turkalj is breathing a sigh of relief to finally get a step down in competition.
He is a skilled fighter already but needs more experience against better competition than he was facing on the regional scene. His performance on the Contender Series last year was not worth a contract, but luckily, he was given a short notice opportunity to still make it to the big show.
He is a wrestling grinder who loves to smother his opponents and control them from the top position. He struggles to hold big, strong, explosive fighters down like Vitor Petrino, but can do it against most other light heavyweights
I think this is one of those fights where Pedro will let down the public once again. He could be dangerous early with his power and sneaky submissions, but I feel Turkalj will do a good enough job of nullifying that and getting his grind on.
Pedro falls into the category of fighters I expect to wilt under Turkalj’s style and I’d put his chances closer to 60% (-150). Thus, at +100 odds, he’s a no-brainer shot for me.
The Pick: Anton Turkalj +100
Justin Tafa (6-3) vs Austen Lane (12-3)
With a 3-3 record through his UFC career thus far, Tafa seems to have settled into that role of being a guy that provides big knockouts but not breaking through to the next level.
His style is not complex at all. Walk his opponents down, corral them into bad positions, throw big shots, score a knockout. Otherwise, he normally gets out-pointed if he can’t score the big shot.
However, I think the more experience he gets at this level, the better he can get at closing the distance to land that kill shot. It’s surprising to think he is still just 29 years old, which is very young for the heavyweight division.
Many remember Lane as the fighter that came up short against Greg Hardy on the Contender Series back in 2018. He managed to put together a 7-2 run on the regional scene to earn another shot on the Contender Series which he made good on last season.
Lane has an NFL background and transitioned to MMA pretty well. He moves well laterally, throws a solid barrage of kicks, and has a decent gas tank to keep up a decent pace for 15 minutes.
We saw these two go at it for 29 seconds before their fight was stopped due to an accidental eye poke. I think I saw enough in those 29 seconds to believe that it was just a matter of time before Tafa landed a bomb to get the knockout.
That’s usually not a lot to bank on a -200, which is why I’d suggest the knockout prop to get the most out of this pick, but this isn’t a props article. Also, there are a ton of chalky spots on this card and not a lot of underdogs I feel good about.
The Pick: Justin Tafa -200