Trent’s NCAAB Best Bets for Saturday – February 24, 2024
TRENT’S NCAAB BEST BETS FOR SATURDAY – FEBRUARY 24, 2024 – The AP Top 25 saw its top two seeds lose this week. Purdue dropped to third overall after their loss to Ohio State, and UConn will face their wrath come Monday when the new rankings are out.
They were upset by fifteenth-ranked Creighton in Omaha as the Bluejays shot 50% from three. The madness is starting to cook and should be boiling by the time March rolls around.
I will give you my three best plays for the Saturday slate, and be sure to check out the Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks page.
Read on for Trent’s NCAAB Best Bets for Saturday – February 24, 2024
Duke at Wake Forest
The Blue Devils crushed Miami earlier this week 84 to 55 and are cruising. They have won five in a row but are on the road for the third consecutive game when they travel to Winston-Salem to take on Wake Forest.
Wake Forest recently beat Pittsburgh 91 to 58 at home. These teams met at Cameron Indoor on the twelfth of this month, and Duke won 77 to 69 and covered the 6.5-point spread. This game may play out differently than their first matchup.
The Demon Deacons have been dominant at home this season, not dropping a game with a 14-0 record. They are 10-3-1 ATS as a home team this season and covered in their lone game as a home underdog when they beat Florida by 11 as five-point underdogs.
Wake Forest will have their hands full against Duke. They score 80.5 points per game and shoot 38% from three, but free throws are where Wake Forest can make up some ground. They make 80.5% (third in the nation), and Duke converts 72.8%.
Duke shot 25 free throws to 13 for Wake Forest in their first matchup, but that will not happen outside of Cameron Indoor. Wake Forest also won the turnover battle in their first matchup, which, if they do again, could lead to an upset victory.
The Pick: Wake Forest -2.5
South Carolina at Ole Miss
In their first matchup with the Rebels, South Carolina won 68 to 65 at home. Now the Gamecocks are 3.5-point underdogs on the road in Oxford. The Gamecocks have had a bumpy ride as of late. They have dropped their last two games: a 40-point road loss to Auburn and a 1-point home defeat to LSU.
They are trending in the wrong direction at the wrong time. Ole Miss lost their last game on the road at rival Mississippi State and has dropped four of their last five games. The spread is very telling in this matchup.
The Gamecocks have been one of the best teams ATS this season, with a record of 18-8. The Rebels are 13-13 ATS this season and 7-6 ATS as a home favorite. The area where Ole Miss has excelled is with a rest disadvantage.
They are 7-2 ATS and are coming off a game on Wednesday, while the Gamecocks last played on Saturday. South Carolina could be a little rusty going a week without playing a game, and Ole Miss will have the opportunity to push the pace.
Ole Miss averages 16.8 seconds per possession, and South Carolina plays a slower game with an average of 19.5 seconds per possession.
Free throws are another area where Ole Miss could take advantage, as they shoot 74.8% on 19.4 attempts per game. South Carolina shoots 72.4% from the charity stripe on 17.8 attempts per game. Home-court advantage should play a factor in this matchup, and the Rebels could run away with this game.
The Pick: Ole Miss -3.5
Alabama at Kentucky
This SEC matchup has the makings of the best game of the day. The thirteenth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide travel to Rupp Arena to take on the seventeenth-ranked Kentucky Wildcats. Alabama is entering this game on a three-game winning streak, and Kentucky lost their last game against LSU on a wild buzzer-beater.
The Crimson Tide are 16-10 ATS this season, and the Wildcats are 15-11. The largest trend difference is their ATS record with 2-3 days off, which is the case here, as both teams last played on Wednesday.
Kentucky is 9-11 ATS with equal rest, and Alabama is 12-5. It could be because Alabama has far more experience and is accustomed to the schedule of a college team. The stats could be more telling in this matchup.
Alabama is the first-ranked team in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. They shoot 48% from the field and convert 79.1% of their free throws. Kentucky is also a powerhouse offense this season.
They are the ninth-ranked team in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and both teams are in the top 25 in terms of pace. It could be a back-and-forth affair between two high-powered offenses.
The difference could be rebounding, where Alabama grabs 36.6 per game. They also average 11.3 offensive boards per game, and Kentucky allows 9.7 offensive boards per game, which ranks 303rd in the nation. Alabama could win this game on the glass and secure it with excellent free-throw shooting.
