Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Expert Pick and Prediction – July 4, 2023
TORONTO BLUE JAYS VS. CHICAGO WHITE SOX EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – July 4, 2023 — Consistency, thy name is not Chicago. The White Sox continued the inconsistent play they’ve shown for the past month by avoiding the sweep against Oakland.
That makes it three solid weeks where they’ve neither won more than two straight nor lost more than two straight. The White Sox haven’t been great by any means, but neither has the rest of the AL Central, so they’ve still got a chance at the division title.
The Odds
With no further preamble, here’s where the White Sox stand with DraftKings’ sportsbook in tonight’s test:
As for the Blue Jays, they may be favorites, but they are just glad to get away from the AL East for a month. Not only is Toronto coming off getting swept by the Red Sox, but the Jays have gotten pounded all year by their divisional rivals.
For the season, Toronto is 7-20 against the AL East and 38-20 against the rest of the majors. That includes an 11-5 mark against the AL Central and a three-game rout of the Pale Hose in April.
First Pitch
When: Tuesday, July 4th at 8:10 p.m. EDT
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
Starting Pitchers: Chris Bassitt, TOR (8-5, 4.06 ERA, 93 K’s) vs. Lucas Giolito, CHW (6-5, 3.53 ERA, 108 K’s)
Public Bets: 67% on Toronto
Public Money: 90% on Toronto
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of July 3rd, 2023
Toronto vs. Chicago In-Season Trends
“Rout” is surely the only way to describe the last H2H between the two sides. The Blue Jays crushed the White Sox over three games, outscoring them 20-2. Going further back, Toronto has won four straight in this series.
What’s more, the Jays have consistently scored at least five runs over their past 10 meetings with Chicago. So in practice, either the OVER cashes easily, or the White Sox take it on the chin.
Chicago’s recent performances fit this trend, as the OVER has cashed in five straight White Sox games. In each of Chicago’s past four games, the White Sox have given up seven runs.
That is not an encouraging sign, considering three of them came against Oakland.
Players to Watch
Chris Bassitt has an edge in this game. Bassitt has mostly struggled over the past couple weeks, as Toronto has lost three of his past four starts
But Bassitt’s weakness is patient teams, and that’s not the White Sox. Chicago ranks 29th in the majors in walks, averaging just 2.5 walks per game as a team.
With the Sox likely to get themselves out, Bassitt’s strikeout prop could be a good play when it comes on the board.
Luis Robert ranks fourth in the majors in home runs with 24, but lately, he’s been hitting well even when it doesn’t leave the yard.
He’s hit safely in 10 of his past 11 games, and with the wind blowing in from right-center, a base hit is far more likely in this game than a home run.
The Pick
The Jays tend to beat the teams they should beat, which is why they’re sitting above .500. If that doesn’t continue this month, Toronto’s going to be a seller at the deadline.
Toronto’s been lighting up the scoreboard when it faces Chicago, and the Jays did score 10 runs over their past two games against Boston. The White Sox haven’t exactly excelled at run prevention anyway lately, and the Jays should be ready to get their bats rolling here.
If you want to be aggressive, taking the run line might be the play here, but the moneyline looks just fine for the Jays to get back on track.
Dan’s Picks
- Blue Jays ML
- Blue Jays TTO 5
- Luis Robert Over 0.5 Hits