Tigers vs. Guardians MLB Expert Pick and Prediction – May 8, 2023 

TIGERS VS. GUARDIANS MLB EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – May 8, 2023 — Detroit almost made it back to .500, but an ugly loss on Sunday to St. Louis ended their five-game winning streak. The Tigers are probably better than their record suggests, as they’ve played probably the toughest schedule in baseball to this point. Through 33 games, only five — three with St. Louis and two with San Francisco — have come against a team that’s more than one game under .500.  

That part can be forgiven, but what can’t be forgiven is the Tigers’ punchless offense. Detroit has scored just 121 runs, an average of just 3.67 per game. Only Miami has fewer runs this season, with Cleveland not much better. In fact, the Guardians’ offense is actually weaker on a per game basis, as Cleveland has scored just one more run while playing one more game. 

But the Guardians’ pitching continues to keep them in almost every game they’ve played. Cleveland ranks ninth in ERA at 3.75, and the Guardians lead the majors in saves with 14. Their bullpen’s ERA is just 3.22, and that’s helped them keep games incredibly low scoring. With these two offenses going head-to-head, even this meager total might be too high.   

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Detroit Tigers  (15-18 SU, 19-14 RL)	O7.5	+1.5	O7.5	+165
Cleveland Guardians  (16-18 SU, 14-20 RL)	-1.5	-1.5	U7.5	-195

First Pitch 

When: Monday, May 8th at 6:10 p.m. EDT 

Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland 

Starting Pitchers: Joey Wentz, DET (0-3, 6.67 ERA, 22 K’s) vs. Tanner Bibee, CLE (1-0, 2.45 ERA, 13 K’s)  

Public Bets: 71% on Cleveland 

Public Money: 69% on Cleveland 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 8th, 2023 

Detroit vs. Cleveland In-Season Trends 

Part of this is because Cleveland has had a much better team than Detroit in recent years, but Progressive Field has been a house of horrors for the Tigers for the past few seasons. Detroit has gone just 16-47 in its past 63 visits to Cleveland, even after picking up three wins in Ohio last season. The teams already met in a three-game set at Comerica Park, and all three were easy unders, as the teams combined to score 13 runs in three outings.  

So far, Cleveland has been a heavy UNDER team, as the under has cashed in seven straight and 11 of 12 for the Guardians. In that stretch, only two games — the one over, April 29, and April 24 — has seen either team get above five runs. But Detroit has gone the other direction as of late: eight of the Tigers’ past 10 have gone above the total. This could be the Tigers starting to hit as the schedule eases off: Detroit has scored 33 runs in its past six games, a full fourth of its run total for the season. 

Players to Watch 

When neither team hits the ball all that well, picking a prop play becomes difficult. However, Steven Kwan hit safely in both of his starts in Detroit, and he has hit safely in seven of his past nine games. Six of those saw him record at least two total bases, so taking him to go OVER 1.5 total bases at +125 looks like good value. 

Kerry Carpenter blew up Cleveland pitching in the first three games with five hits, but he’s on the 10-day injured list and won’t be active here. The play, then, becomes Riley Greene, who has scored in seven of the Tigers’ past eight games. Taking him at +130 to cross the plate looks like a worthwhile risk. 

The Pick 

Greene might be expected to score, but there’s not a lot here offense-wise otherwise. Neither side hits the ball very well, so runs are likely to be at a premium. I haven’t seen enough of Tanner Bibee to definitively give him a advantage here, so I’d rather stay away from the full game result in this one. 

Instead, I’m going with the totals play. If you have to make a result bet, I’d go with the runline here, as Cleveland loves to play one-run games. 

 

Dan’s Picks

Tigers +1.5  Under 7.5  Steven Kwan O1.5 Total Bases  Riley Greene O0.5 Runs Scored

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