Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3.5) (o/u 31)
Your sicko cretins of parlays and props are here for another TNF streaming service nightmare, as the Tennessee Titans (6-3) travel to Green Bay to play the trendy Packers (4-6). The Packers are coming off an impressive win against the Dallas Cowboys (6-3). Will they continue their momentum against a plucky Vrabel team or will they regress to ye Packers of Olde who scored nine measly points in Detroit just two weeks ago?
Meanwhile, the Titans are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven games. Luck or legit, the Titans come into this Thursday night game with a ton of confidence in their run heavy scheme and healthy(ish) Tannehill.
We have a lot of thoughts on this one. Let’s get to it.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 11/17/22.
|Thru Week 10 Records||Wins||Losses||Push||Winning %|
How to Watch
|When||Thursday, November 17th, 8:15 pm EST|
Green Bay, WI
|How to Watch||Amazon Prime|
Jack: There are so many ways you could take this game. Both these teams play at an extremely slow pace, so the under could hit. (We love the under on Thursday games). When Vrabel is an underdog of 3 points or more, he’s 20-7 against the spread. That’s a nice number. The Packers are also 3-1 against the spread at home. What to do. What to do.
I’m going to give you a very weird strategy here. The Titans average 5 points in the first quarter through 9 games this year. They have a reputation for scoring early and faltering late (see: Giants). The Packers average 2 points in the first quarter thus far and what has once been a lethal, high scoring offense has seen sluggish starts railroad their game plans.
I love the Titans at +1 in the first quarter. Pound it.
But what about the rest of the game? We can’t lay off after 15 minutes of fun, can we?
If this first quarter play hits, then I would recommend throwing some scratch on the Pack to cover in the 4th quarter at -1. The Titans are abysmal in the fourth quarter, averaging 1.3 points so far this season. They’re even worse away from home, where they average 0.6 points. Simply put: they can’t score late.
Meanwhile, the Packers are averaging 8 points in the fourth quarter during their last three games. They scored 14 last week against the Cowboys. They average 6 points at home.
If the Titans unravel, it’s going to be in the second half. I love playing these quarters. If one doesn’t hit, the other will.
Pick: Titans (+1) in the first quarter and Packers (-1) in the fourth quarter.
Nate: The Titans want to run the ball a zillion times a game and control the clock. The Packers followed a similar game plan when they upset the Cowboys.
I can’t tell if the Packers are coming together as a team, or if it was just a clunker from the Cowboys last week. We’ve been on the unders for a lot of Thursday games this season. The game script for both offenses, TNF trends, and crappy weather all point towards another low-scoring game.
Pick: Under Total Points +/- 41.
You Already Know
John: As my youngest son, Joe, says about the Titans, “Here’s our gameplan: snap the ball, hand the ball, run the ball, repeat.”
It’s all Derrick Henry tonight. Pack is banged up (much like Tennessee), and gave up a whopping 450 yards last week, much of it on the ground. A play action here and a slant there and that gets Tannehill 17.
Rodgers has two receivers. Titans have zero. That’s worse. Titans front four is fearsome: the Nashville Sack Exchange. Rodgers gets mad and that’s it.
Pick: Titans +3.5.