Thursday Night Football: Patriots at Steelers Expert Pick

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: PATRIOTS AT STEELERS EXPERT PICK – Thursday night’s game may be one of the worst offensive matchups of the season. The Patriots are traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers.

The Patriots currently own the second overall pick in next year’s draft, and the Steelers just suffered a loss to their offense. Both teams are battling adversity, but their defenses have remained steady. It will feature a matchup between two great defensive coaches, however.

Related: NFL Week 13 Fantasy Football Sleepers

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, 7:20 pm, December 7, 2023

Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

TV: Amazon Prime

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, correct as of  December 6th, 2023.

New England Patriots

The Patriots lost to the Chargers, six to zero. Mac Jones was benched in favor of Bailey Zappe and will continue after the shutout loss.

Running back Rhamondre Stevenson suffered a high ankle sprain in the loss and will likely miss multiple weeks. Demario Douglas missed Tuesday’s practice due to a concussion and must clear concussion protocol before he can play.

The Patriots had several players listed as limited participants on Tuesday.

The list included wide receivers Juju Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, and Kayshon Boutte. Trent Brown, Sidy Sow, and Riley Reiff for the offensive line, and defensive tackle Christian Barmore also were limited.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers suffered a devastating loss to the Cardinals last week and a loss at quarterback. Kenny Pickett injured his ankle and could not finish the game. He underwent surgery and will not be placed on injured reserve, which is a promising sign for his return.

Mitch Trubisky replaced him following the injury and will be the starter this week. Najee Harris did not participate in Tuesday’s practice due to a knee injury.

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Head-To-Head

It is the Mitch Trubisky-Bailey Zappe matchup everyone has been anticipating.

The Patriots and Chargers managed six total points in their game last week, which may foreshadow what is about to transpire. Zappe threw 25 times last week and only completed 13 for 141 yards. He definitely is not the answer moving forward, and the Patriots seem intent on trotting him out there.

Ezekiel Elliott should take over for the injured Stevenson. He ran 17 times for 52 yards and caught four passes for 40 yards against the Chargers. The Steelers have allowed the twenty-first most yards per game but only allow 19.1 points per game, which is sixth. The Patriots are the worst-scoring team in the league, only averaging 12.3 points per game.

The Steelers looked awful with Trubisky at the helm. The only score they mustered (outside of the field goal on the first drive with Pickett) was a fourth-quarter touchdown to Diontae Johnson when they were down 24 to three. Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for 122 yards on the ground.

Warren can handle a full workload, but he and Harris have worked well in tandem this season. The Patriots’ run defense is also the best part of their team.

They allow 88.7 rushing yards per game, but Barmore’s status is vital as he is one of the few bright spots for the Patriots this season. The Steelers will likely struggle against this defense but should manage enough points to beat this team.

Prediction

Over/Under

The total on DraftKings is only 30. I would take under 30, given the two defenses, defensive-minded coaches, and subpar quarterbacks.

Spread

The Steelers are six-point favorites. I would take the Patriots +6. The Steelers give up yardage but limit points. The Patriots could find a few field goals in this game and keep it a three-point game.

Player Prop

Elliott’s rushing total is 58.5. He should get most of the volume this week and tends to improve as the game progresses. The Steelers give up 121 rushing yards per game, and the Patriots offense should be rushing-centric with Zappe.