Thursday Night Football: Lions at Packers Expert Pick – September 28, 2023

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: LIONS AT PACKERS EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 28, 2023 – Dan Campbell will lead his team into Lambeau Field and attempt to leave with their third victory.

The Packers and Matt LaFleur will be waiting for them but might be without some of their best players. The Lions have not had much success in Wisconsin in their history, but Campbell is beginning to change things as he holds a 3-1 record against the Packers during his tenure.

This game should be close and competitive since the Lions are 1.5-point favorites.

Related: NFL Week Four Fantasy Sleepers

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Lions (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)	-1.5	-1.5	O46	-120
Packers (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS)	u46.5	+1.5	U46	+100

Kickoff

When: Thursday, Saturday 28 at 8:15 EST

Where: Lambeau Field

TV: Amazon Prime

Public Money: Lions, 57%

Public Bets: Packers 54%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, correct as of September 27th, 2023.

Detroit Lions

The Lions beat the Falcons at home last week and did so with the help of their rookies.

Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta caught eight passes for 84 yards and a TD, while Jahmyr Gibbs had 17 carries for 80 yards. David Montgomery is still listed as questionable but logged a limited practice on Tuesday and seems to be trending in the right direction. He is dealing with a thigh injury. Taylor Decker, Lion’s left tackle, has already said he would suit up on Thursday if it were up to him, and he is also trending in a positive direction.

On defense, Emmanuel Moseley is close to returning from an ACL tear he suffered last season, but it may be next week due to the short week. Kerby Joseph is dealing with a hip injury, and the safety status remains unknown.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are dealing with an injury bug.

They took care of business last week, eliminating a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter and they beat the Saints 18 to 17 at home. They have a slew of injuries to a lot of their best players.

Aaron Jones missed the last two weeks while dealing with a hamstring injury but has a good chance of playing after logging consecutive limited practices.

Christian Watson has not played this season but looks poised to return to action this week unless there is a setback with his hamstring injury. David Bakhtiari is also questionable and has not logged a practice in the first two chances of the week. We will see closer to game time if he can suit up and play.

De’Vondre Campbell is dealing with an ankle injury and has not been a participant in practice on Monday or Tuesday. His status for Thursday is in jeopardy. Rashan Gary and Jaire Alexander are also listed as questionable but practiced in a limited fashion on Tuesday.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Head-To-Head

The Lions have run the ball on 46.46% of plays this season and could increase this week.

The Packers have allowed 4.3 yards per carry and could be without multiple linebackers. Montgomery is averaging 3.8 YPC, and Gibbs is averaging 4.5 YPC.

They should both have room to run and will help open the passing attack. Amon-Ra St. Brown has posted consecutive 100-yard games and could have a favorable matchup if Jaire Alexander cannot play.

The Lion’s defense recorded seven sacks last week against the Falcons. They also held their ground game in check, only allowing 44 yards on 20 attempts.

They are allowing an average of 72 rushing yards per game this season but have a tough matchup against the two-headed monster of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

Jordan Love should have to beat the Lions through the air, and while he has shown he is capable, he has a tough test ahead of him this week. The Lions should stuff the run and compete for this victory on the road.

Prediction

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Over/Under

The total is 46 on DraftKings. I would play the OVER because the Lions’ offense has scored 20 or more points every game this season. Jordan Love also takes care of the football and should put up points at home, especially if he gets his skill players back.

Spread

Taking a road favorite is not always the best strategy, but I believe it is the right decision this week.

The Lions have proven themselves as a winning team, and their defense seems to improve with each passing week. Take the Lions -1.5 or hit them straight up if you want to lay a little juice to secure a win if it is a one-point victory.

Player Prop

Jordan Love used his feet to secure the victory for the Packers last week, but that was without two of his best playmakers. They should return this week, which means Love will be more of a pocket passer. His rushing total is 16.5, and I would play the under

Trent’s Picks

Lions (-1.5) OVER 46 Total Points Jordan Love UNDER 16.5 Rushing Yds