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Thursday Night Football: Analysts Hope to Heat Up in Week 2 Opener

By: John Fredericks, Jack Fredericks, and Nate Perry

Line Courtesy of DraftKings, 9/15

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4), 8:15 EST Amazon Prime Video

John: According to Issac Newton: What comes up, must come down. He called it the law of gravity. I call it the law of the NFL: on any given Thursday night. My late father Sam said: “Never bet against the Chiefs at Arrowhead.” Good advice. Sorry dad. 

I like the nomad gypsy Chargers on the road going to Kansas City where the entire city of Vegas bet the Chiefs. The Bolts have no home. They play 17 road games. Besides, the public is broke. The casinos build bigger hotels. 

You simply cannot lay points against this Chargers offense. I know: Mahomes threw 5 TD’s and he’s all that and a bag of chips. But that was against the rat Cardinals. Herbert moves the ball and eats up the clock. I’m taking the 4. Lightening strikes in KC. Bet Bolts + 4.

Jack: Fire up your streaming services and renew that Prime subscription, because tonight’s game promises to be a good one. I sit atop the NFL analyst bracket with an intimidating 5-3 record after an absolute scorcher on Monday Night football. Never bet against Geno Smith in Seattle on Monday Night in a home opener against an AFC West opponent. Everyone knows that. We lift up a prayer for the Godzilla, because the man went 5-10 last week. If he doesn’t get this one right, he might as well go back to politics. 

Fans of this website (Nate’s grandma), know that your crack team of degenerate analysts hate a four point spread. You can’t win those. This is a game that promises to be close and the four points will make any honest gambler nervous whichever way they choose.

Here’s what we know: the Chiefs are still the Chiefs. Many people were trying to be cute this year in picking the Chiefs to finish last in the division (ha ha). The loss of Tyreek Hill didn’t seem to affect the team much in the Massacre at Scottsdale. The Chiefs are going to score. A lot. The O-Line might not look as good as it has in the past and the defense has yet to face a real QB, but the Chiefs can still hang forty on anyone. As for the Chargers, they played a close game in Los Angeles and escaped with a win after being outscored 16-7 in the second half. For a team as skilled as the Chiefs, this seems like an easy decision: lay points and go to bed. I think a little differently, though, which is why I’m 5-3. I think the Chargers come away with the win here in a tricky game against a division rival. I’ll take the four points and keep putting money on the Chargers until they stop covering the spread. I love the moneyline here to at +160. Bet Chargers +4. Bet Chargers ML +160.

Nate: Welcome to the game that’s going to have everyone over the age of 50 yelling at the television because they can’t figure out how to stream on Amazon Prime. It’s a shame because this one figures to be a fun one. There are a variety of ways that you can play this. I ended up playing the Chiefs -3 last week before either of these teams played a snap because that number just seemed too low. Sure enough it’s steamed up to -4 after briefly reaching -4.5. I think that -4 is still the right play here because the Chargers aren’t quite at full strength and will miss the services of their stud corner J.C. Jackson, but that’s baked into the line by now. Chiefs should be able to put up enough to cover that number. If you’re all in on the Chargers, take a gander at the moneyline. I suspect whoever wins, covers, so take the better odds. As for me, the total is ludicrously high for two teams coming in off a short week. Expect them to be a little sluggish and get off to a slow start. The under is almost always a good play in these games, particularly when it starts to get really high. I couldn’t argue much against anyone who wanted to bet either side of this game, but I will argue with anyone who thinks this is a high scoring shootout. Pick: Under 54


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  • John Fredericks, Publisher

    John Fredericks, the Godzilla of Truth, has spent more than 40 years in the media, previously working as a journalist, newspaper editor, and television host. Fredericks is an avid sports fan, journalist, and handicapper. He brings his unique voice and style, crafted by years of political commentary broadcast on the airwaves, to the world of sports. He cut his teeth on the radio announcing high school football, basketball and baseball games. His weekly column, You Can't Buy Culture, follows ebbs and flows of a diehard fan at the whims of his favorite teams.

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  • Jack Fredericks, Editor

    Jack Fredericks is the editor of Godzilla Wins. He has a M.A. Literature and the Environment and a M.A. in Teaching. He covers the NFL, college football, and the NBA. He combines his unique perspective with advanced metrics to provide robust analysis for your enjoyment. Twitter: @JohnMattFred

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  • Nate Perry, Senior Analyst #NoPickNate

    Nate Perry is a career college educator and literary writer who tends bar to get the inside scoop on sports. He makes his living in hardscrabble downtown Reno, Nevada. A sports handicapper by trade, Nate is legendary at the sportsbook in Reno. If you can gamble on it, chances are Nate has tried his hand at it. He's a former fiction writer who has turned to writing about sports in a desperate bid to get published, much to the chagrin of nearly everyone around him. He is featured here with his extremely large dog, Boatswain.

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