The Memorial Tournament PGA Expert Outright Picks
THE MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT PGA EXPERT OUTRIGHT PICKS – The PGA Tour heads to Ohio for Jack’s Tournament at Muirfield Village this week.
The preview is here for your viewing pleasure, so we won’t dwell too much on the tournament here.
We’ve got you covered over at Clubhouse Picks with all the week’s hot topics from the world of golf and, as always, we attempt to pick some winners this week in the golf betting market. We got close with Harris English before a disastrous final round. Let’s hope we can keep it up and actually close one in this week’s version of “What’s in the Bag?”
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, May 24, 2023
The Driver (Scottie, Rahm)
These are the guys who are at the top of the leaderboard, usually at +2000 or better. They are the favorites for a reason, and though we don’t always bet them, these are our favorite bets from the top of the board.
Jon Rahm (+750)
We talked about it on the podcast, but there’s not much more that can be said about the run of golf that Scottie has been on lately. Likewise, the entire world has been touting Patrick Cantlay’s dominance at this event. This is where I want to zig when everyone else zags.
The current FedEx Cup points leader feels like the forgotten man in this week’s media circus narrative. And it’s all because he had one forgettable week at the PGA Championship on an insanely difficult course. The bottom line for me is this: Rahm leads or is close to leading about 20 relevant categories for this event.
He’s excellent off the tee, a stellar iron player, and the short game is rock solid. By the way, he’s also won this event before and should have won it again in 2021 when he was leading by six strokes after 54 holes before being notified that he’d tested positive for COVID-19. He was leading by six while he had the disease that basically brought the world to a halt.
The Irons (Hideki, Day)
Our reliable players. You can usually find these heroes in the 20/1-80/1 range. They’re reliable and often a good bet for top-5, top-10, or top-20 props if you’re not feeling especially frisky.
Jason Day (+2500)
Jack is all over Jason Day this week and for good reason. The Jason Day Renaissance is fully upon us. He’s got a win in the rearview this season after battling his way back into world-class form after a myriad of injuries and swing changes sent him spiraling down the drain of the world rankings for a couple of years.
I’m willing to throw out the PGA Championship results. It was clear in the pressers before that he wasn’t really preparing like he needed to to be competitive, and it showed in his play. It was clear that he needed some time to recuperate after winning the AT&T Byron Nelson and that his schedule simply prevented that from happening.
Anyways, he’s back and recharged now. He’s accurate and plenty long enough to win here off the tee. Every other aspect of his game is trending towards elite status. You could do worse than catching a guy at 25/1 who is clearly trending up.
The Wedges (Si Woo Kim, Tom Kim)
We bet on these guys all the time and they never seem to actually win. Nevertheless, we’re enamored with what they bring to the table and will ride with them for as long as it takes.
Si Woo Kim (+5000)
Any bet on Si Woo can and, usually, is an extremely frustrating experience. He’s mercurial to say the least. It’s difficult to know when he’ll play well because his four victories have happened on vastly different courses. He’s a PLAYERS champ on a difficult course at TPB Sawgrass, but he’s also notched a win at the AmEx which is basically just a Palm Springs birdiefest.
He seems to like coming here though and has posted top-20s in three straight appearances. He’s been playing some decent golf lately and had a T-2 at the AT&T Byron Nelson a couple of weeks ago.
If the putter can cooperate, his driver and iron game should put him in a position to be competitive here.
The Putter (Shane Lowry, Wyndham Clark)
Bet regret. We fired off these bets in the heat of the moment, then we pondered them a little while longer. Now we’re wondering if that money would’ve been better spent on literally anything else.
Shane Lowry (+5500)
I drank the Kool-Aid this week and hopped on him with every other yahoo in the golf betting universe. And I hate myself for it.
The narrative with Lowry is that he’s really only competitive on courses that play close to even par, are played in awful weather, or some combination of the two. He’s not really a guy you can target when guys are shooting -20. It’s just not where he excels.
The tee-to-green numbers are excellent and he’s notched top-20 finishes at three of the more difficult courses this season: Riviera, Augusta National, and Oak Hill. He’s clearly a big-game hunter this year, and this is a big week with an elevated field.
My regret is that he absolutely sucks at putting right now. I didn’t do a ton of looking at the bottom of the SG: Putting list, but he’s currently ranked 180/198. I think there is only one person who is worse with the flagstick who will be teeing it up this week, and that’s the legendarily bad Luke List.
All of this is to say, he had a decent week on the greens at the PGA Championship, but I feel stupid for thinking that he’s poised to make this big of a turnaround this week and actually win a tournament.
The Hybrid (Harris English, Matt Kuchar)
This is our fun long shot that could make us all rich. Or not. It’s tough to hit these, but it’s a damn good time sweating them if they’re in contention. Tread lightly on these guys, but sometimes miracles happen.
Matt Kuchar (+7500)
Now is not the time to drag you into the mire that is betting on Harris English, and I said my piece on the podcast, Clubhouse Picks.
Let us talk then of Matt Kuchar who has a hilariously good record here. It doesn’t look like a course that would suit him, but in ten appearances, his average finish is 18th. He’s won here before and has three top-5s at Muirfield Village. He had a pretty strong run with some good finishes in March and April before cooling off a little bit with a missed cut at the PGA Championship. We don’t need to read too much into that MC.
His short game has been out of this world lately, so if he can navigate himself around like he’s shown he’s capable of, he’s an interesting long shot to consider. You may be safer sticking to the prop market though and taking him for a top-10 or top-20 finish.