Texas A&M vs. Virginia Odds, Expert Pick – Wednesday, Nov. 29
TEXAS A&M VS. VIRGINIA ODDS, EXPERT PICK – The Virginia Cavaliers (6-1) will play host to the Texas A&M Aggies (6-1) in this ACC/SEC matchup, featuring two teams off to an incredibly hot start.
The Cavs will attempt to utilize their signature defensive intensity to slow down Aggies’ star junior guard, Wade Taylor IV, in a game between two teams with big plans for March.
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Read below for Texas A&M vs. Virginia odds, expert pick.
(6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)
(6-1 SU, 3-3 ATS)
How to Watch
When: Wednesday, November 29th at 7:15 pm EST
Where: John Paul Jones Arena
The recipe for success for the Aggies this year has come on the offensive side of the ball. They rely heavily on guard Wade Taylor IV, who is averaging 20 points per game and four assists. When Taylor IV can’t create a bucket, the Aggies look to senior forward, Henry Coleman III, to grab the board and create second chance opportunities.
Taylor IV is averaging over 8.3 rebounds per game and his output has the Aggies first in offensive rebounds with 16.4 per game.
While the Aggies are fourth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they face a Cavaliers team that is 12th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Texas A&M is also ranked 220th in tempo so far this year. They don’t mind playing at the same pace of Tony Bennett’s Cavs, but they are going to need to create more second chance opportunities against a tight defensive squad in Virginia.
I also worry about Texas A&M’s ability to score from outside. Virginia is a lockdown unit in defending the two-point shot, which means teams need to be able to create some opportunities beyond the three-point range. However, the Aggies are only shooting 29% from three-point range.
The Aggies don’t play defense particularly well, either. They are 81st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and they don’t force many turnovers.
Tony Bennet’s teams have the most consistent identity of any program in college basketball. The formula is simple: defensive efficiency plus low turnover margin equals ugly wins.
If that’s the recipe for wins, then Bennett must be happy with his squad so far this year. Virginia îs 14th in turnovers and ranked 88th in Adjusted Offense Efficiency.
The offense plays slow, methodical basketball. They’d prefer to rely on their defense to frustrate their opponent and then wait for their opportunity to get the right shot. Considering the Aggies aren’t the strongest team in forcing turnovers, the Cavs should be able to execute their game plan.
The one thing I worry about with Virginia in this game is their shooting from the outside. The Cavs rank in the bottom 100 for two-point field goal percentage and are averaging only 7.8 offensive rebounds for the season. They might be able to get their shot, but if the Cavs can’t capitalize, they might not get a second chance.
Oh yeah, and their free throw numbers are still abysmal. Virginia is averaging 66.7% from the charity stripe. Sheesh.
The points total is set at 126.5 and I wouldn’t be surprised if that moved down to 124 before the game tips off. The fact of the matter is, these two teams don’t score and neither coach wants to play fast.
You won’t see many cappers pick a side, but I’ll take a stab at the spread. Given Virginia’s struggles with the two-point shot and the offensive boards, I’m going with the Aggies here at +1.5. I would play this up to +1. Some books are offering +2 right now.