Texas A&M vs. Kentucky Expert Pick and Prediction – March 15, 2024 

TEXAS A&M VS. KENTUCKY EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 15, 2024 — Four straight wins have things looking much better for Buzz Williams and Texas A&M. The Aggies appeared dead in the water after a five-game losing streak that included two land mines in Vanderbilt and Arkansas. But they’ve since recovered with two wins over Mississippi and a Quad 1 win over Mississippi State, which puts them right back in the tournament picture.

But have they done enough? Wins over Iowa State, Ohio State, Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida have their profile looking solid. Losses to Memphis, LSU and two to Arkansas, not so much. With one bid stolen by the Atlantic 10 champion already and the American, ACC and Big Ten all featuring potential bid thieves, A&M can’t leave anything to chance.

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Beating Kentucky a second time would likely seal the deal. But this really isn’t a good time to play the Wildcats. Not only did A&M use up a lot of energy in a grueling game with Mississippi, but the Wildcats come in as winners of seven of their past eight. John Calipari’s done a fine job getting Kentucky up toward the No. 4 line, and the Cats are now in prime position to make a real run in March.

Kentucky didn’t handle Texas A&M’s style very well when the teams met in College Station, but that was the Wildcats’ third SEC game of the year. The Cats are far more experienced now, which could make this a tall task for the Aggies.  

The Odds 

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Texas A&M (19-13 SU, 15-17 ATS)	O159	+5	O159	+190
Kentucky (23-8 SU, 18-13 ATS)	-5.5	-5	U159	-230

Tipoff 

When: Friday, March 15 at 7 p.m. EST 

Where: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tenn. 

TV: SEC Network

Public Bets: 62% on Kentucky 

Public Money: 83% on Texas A&M

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 15th, 2024

Texas A&M vs. Kentucky In-Season Trends 

When you’re betting Texas A&M, you’re betting on whether you think the Aggies will win the game or not, regardless of the spread. The Aggies have matched their win result to their spread result in 11 straight games, dating back to Feb. 3, when they beat Florida but didn’t cover. Only once all season — a four-point loss to Houston in the Toyota Center — did the Aggies cover without winning the game.

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Kentucky’s winning, but it’s not necessarily covering because the Wildcats give up almost as many as they score. Over the current five-game winning streak, Kentucky has held one team — Vanderbilt — under 80 points. The Wildcats have played to the over in four of their past five contests, with only Tennessee’s defense keeping the game under the number.

The Difference-Makers 

When you’re betting Texas A&M, you’re betting on whether you think the Aggies will win the game or not, regardless of the spread. The Aggies have matched their win result to their spread result in 11 straight games, dating back to Feb. 3, when they beat Florida but didn’t cover. Only once all season — a four-point loss to Houston in the Toyota Center — did the Aggies cover without winning the game.

Kentucky’s winning, but it’s not necessarily covering because the Wildcats give up almost as many as they score. Over the current five-game winning streak, Kentucky has held one team — Vanderbilt — under 80 points. The Wildcats have played to the over in four of their past five contests, with only Tennessee’s defense keeping the game under the number.  

The Pick 

A&M’s got a problem in this game: Mississippi. Facing Kentucky requires teams to be fully rested to deal with the Wildcats’ breakneck pace, and the Wildcats now shoot the ball well enough to put up big numbers in a hurry.

After 40 minutes of battling the Rebels, the Aggies likely won’t have enough energy left to stay with the Wildcats for another 40 minutes. And with Kentucky hitting the gas and A&M trying to get to the line anyway, expect the clock to stop regularly and the scoreboard operator to get a workout. 

Dan’s Picks

Kentucky -5    Over 159