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Tennessee vs. Texas A&M Expert Pick – February 21, 2023

Tennessee vs. Texas A&M Expert Pick - February 21, 2023

TENNESSE VS. TEXAS A&M EXPERT PICK - FEBRUARY 21, 2023 -If there’s one team that can’t wait for February to end, it’s Tennessee. Rick Barnes’ squad looked like it was in great shape when February began, carrying an 18-3 record and appearing on track for a possible No. 1 seed. But Tennessee has now lost four of its past six, falling to Kentucky, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Florida.

Three of those came on the road, suggesting that Tennessee is highly vulnerable outside of Knoxville. The Volunteers ripped through their first four SEC road games, but those tests included South Carolina, Mississippi and LSU, the three weakest teams in the conference. Tennessee has dropped three straight on the road, and it’s looking clear that something is off with the Volunteers right now.

They face a Texas A&M squad that has received almost no respect in 2022-23. Buzz Williams’ team didn’t cover itself in glory in non-conference play, losing convincingly to Colorado, Murray State and Boise State.

But since losing to Wofford on Dec. 20, A&M has caught fire. The Aggies have gone 14-2 since that defeat, only losing at Arkansas and Kentucky. They haven’t lost in College Station since the Wofford defeat and own Quad 1 wins over Auburn and Arkansas at home. A win over Tennessee would both cement their case for a bid and set them up to challenge Alabama for the SEC title.

The Odds







(20-7 SU, 14-13 ATS)





Texas A&M

(20-7 SU, 18-9 ATS)







When: Tuesday, February 21st at 7:00 pm EST

Where: Reed Arena, College Station, Texas 


Public Bets: 50% on Texas A&M 

Public Money: 50% on Texas A&M 

Odds courtesy of BetRivers, as of February 21st, 2023

Tennessee vs. Texas A&M In-Season Trends

Betting against Tennessee has been a great way to make money in February, especially on the road. The Volunteers have gone 1-5 ATS this month and 2-4 SU, despite being favored in all six games. Against Texas A&M, they’re an underdog for just the second time all season. In their only other game as an underdog, they failed to cover in a 75-70 loss to Arizona.

Even as the books start to come around to Texas A&M playing well, the Aggies have continued to cover. They’ve been favored in four of their past five games and won them all, going 5-0 ATS to boot. In SEC play, the Aggies are 5-2 ATS at Reed Arena, and they’ve been winning with defense, playing to the UNDER in four of their past five games.

Tennessee would be perfectly happy to go under as well; the Vols have played to the UNDER in five of six. Other than an 86-85 loss to up-tempo Missouri, Tennessee forces opponents to play its game, holding nine of its past 10 SEC opponents to 66 points or less.

The Difference-Makers

Riding a defense-first strategy means Tennessee doesn’t really need any one player to stand out. The Volunteers are usually in good shape if they hold opponents to 55 shots or less and don’t give up too many foul shots.

The latter could be their Achilles’ heel in this game. Texas A&M counts on Wade Taylor IV for much of its scoring, and the Aggies also expect him to get to the line and cash in. Taylor IV makes 85.4% of his foul shots, and the Aggies excel at getting him to the stripe, leading the nation in foul shots attempted per game. Against Missouri, Taylor IV got 10 free throw opportunities and hit them all, keeping the Tigers at bay. Tennessee’s aggressive defense will commit fouls, and the Aggies can certainly cash in if they get the chance.

When Tennessee needs a basket, Santiago Vescovi is the most likely scorer. In this game, that’s a good thing, because he’s the Vols’ best 3-point shooter and perimeter defense is where A&M is weakest. With points likely at a premium in this game, good 3-point shots will be critical.

The Pick

Something is wrong with Tennessee right now.

The Volunteers have beaten good teams this season, but all of that came in Knoxville. They have not shown they can play on the road against a talented opponent, and Texas A&M has improved a lot in the past two months.

The Aggies know they can all but seal a bid with a win here, and Tennessee’s tendency to foul could be very costly here. I’ll take A&M to do the job at home.

Dan's Picks

Texas A&M ML (-125)

Texas A&M -1.5

Under 128.5 Points

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