Steelers vs. Texans Expert Pick – October 1, 2023

STEELERS VS. TEXANS EXPERT PICK – OCTOBER 1, 2023 – The Pittsburgh Steelers hit the road again this week against the Houston Texans for a Sunday 1:00pm matchup.

The Steelers look to extend their two-game winning streak after a solid overall team performance against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday Night Football. The Texans enter this matchup with confidence after dominating the Jacksonville Jaguars 37-17 while being 7.5-point underdogs. 

The rebuilding Texans are underdogs once again as Vegas oddsmakers have the Steelers line at -2.5 at the time of this article. 

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Points	Moneyline
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1 SU, 2-1-0 ATS)	-3	-2.5	O42	-108
HOUSTON Texans (1-2 SU, 1-2-0 ATS)	+3	+2.5	U42	-112

Kickoff

When: Sunday, October 1st at 1:00 EDT

Where: NRG Stadium – Houston, Texas

TV: CBS

Public Bets: 52% on Pittsburgh

Public Money: 51% on Pittsburgh

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of September 30th, 2023

Related: NFL Week Four Fantasy Sleepers

Steelers vs. Texans In-Season Trends

The Steelers offense was much improved last week against the Raiders. After coming into the week ranked dead last in almost every PFF (Pro Football Focus) ranking they showed balance with 333 yards, 17 first downs, and 5.6 yards per play. Steelers QB, Kenny Pickett, had his first two-touchdown passing performance of his career going 16-28 for 235 yards. 

According to the PFF rankings the Texans are 16th in points scored and 23rd in points allowed. Rookie QB, C.J. Stroud, completed 20 of 30 attempts for 280 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The Texans will need Stroud to continue this level of play as both starting offensive tackles, Laremy Tunsil and Josh Jones, are injured and out this week. 

This game will come down to the protection the Texans can provide their young quarterback. Running backs, Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary, will need solid performances as a consistent running game will help nullify the Steelers pass rush. 

The Difference-Makers

Steelers’ defensive ends, T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, must take advantage of the offensive line injuries to the Texans tackles. Watt, who was recently named the Defensive Player of the Month, should have no issues dominating the day, one-upping his big brother J.J. Watt’s Ring of Honor ceremony.

Speaking of NFL monthly superlatives, C.J. Stroud won Rookie of the Month honors and needs to keep this level of play up to win back-to-back games. Stroud is the first quarterback in NFL history to have at least 900 passing yards, four pass touchdowns and zero interceptions in his first three career starts.

The Pick

The Steelers lead the NFL in sacks with 13 in the first three games. They rank second with eight forced turnovers.  After coming into last week with the worst run defense in the league they held 2022 rushing leader Josh Jacobs to 62 yards and 3.6 yards per carry. Their game plan on defense is simple, make the rookie QB beat you. 

Stroud needs to continue his Rookie of the Month consistency to have any chance of leading the Texans to victory. He has never faced a defense with playmakers of this caliber and Highsmith, Watt, and Minkah Fitzpatrick are ready to take full advantage. Head coach Mike Tomlin has a 22-4 record against rookie quarterbacks and is about to rack up his 23rd such victory.

James’s Picks

Steelers -2.5 Jaylen Warren OVER 2.5 receptions  C.J. Stroud UNDER 1.5 Pass TD’s