Stanley Cup Finals Game 5: Panthers vs. Golden Knights Pick

STANLEY CUP FINALS GAME 5: PANTHERS VS. GOLDEN KNIGHTS PICK – Can Vegas finish the job here? The Golden Knights dominated most of Game 4 before having to hold on down the stretch, which says two different things about where this series sits. First, the Panthers haven’t thrown in the towel on their chances, as they managed to fight back from 3-0 down to get back to 3-2 before succumbing.

Second, Vegas is clearly the superior team in this series. The Golden Knights have won all three games that ended in 60 minutes, and they’ve gotten contributions up and down the lineup. Florida has not, having to rely almost entirely on Matthew Tkachuk and Sergei Bobrovsky. 

The Panthers have come back from down 3-1 once before, besting Boston in seven games, but this one has a different feel to it for two reasons. Where Boston was a worn-down team bearing the pressure of the greatest regular season in NHL history, Vegas had few expectations when the playoffs began. Conversely, Florida looks worn down this time around, as Tkachuk seems to be out of gas without a second option available to back him up.

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The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Florida Panthers (55-39-8 SU, 45-57 PL)	O6	+1.5	O6	+140
Vegas Golden Knights (66-27-10 SU, 58-45 PL)	-1.5	-1.5	U6	-165

Puck Drop

When: Saturday, June 10th at 8:00 p.m. EDT

Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Public Bets: 76% on Vegas

Public Money: 91% on Vegas

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 13th, 2023

Vegas vs. Florida In-Season Trends

Game 4 marked two firsts in this series: the first time the home team didn’t score in the first period and the first time the home team didn’t win the game. In every other game and most of the teams’ meetings historically, the home team has managed to light the lamp at least once in the first period. Vegas has scored in the first period of every game in this series, and the Golden Knights will likely be looking for the kill early in this matchup.

The Golden Knights also have history on their side in multiple ways. Only one team has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit in the Stanley Cup Finals, and that happened in 1942. Vegas also remains undefeated against Florida at T-Mobile Arena, boasting a 7-0 mark all-time against the Panthers in Nevada.

Players to Watch

Jonathan Marchessault continues to be Vegas’ most valuable player in this series, scoring four goals and adding three assists over the course of four games. His goal streak finally ended last time out, but he did have a helper and he’s now scored a point in nine consecutive games.

With Tkachuk struggling and a question mark in this game, someone else has to step up for the Panthers. It’s likely to be Aleksander Barkov, who came up with a goal and an assist in Game 4. However, this might not be the right prop play to make, given how well Vegas has defended him in the prior three games.

The Pick

I can’t see Vegas letting this opportunity get away. The Golden Knights have controlled this series from the opening game, and they’ve got a chance to win this on home ice. Top to bottom, they should have too much for Florida, and I expect this to go much the way the first two games in Vegas turned out.

Dan’s Picks

Golden Knights ML Golden Knights First Period Goal Jonathan Marchessault Over 0.5 Points