Sixers vs. Bucks Expert Pick

Sixers vs. Bucks Expert Pick - March 4, 2023

SIXERS VS. BUCKS EXPERT PICK - MARCH 4, 2023 - Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekly column where we break down a few of the marquee matchups from the weekend’s slate of NBA games. One of the more interesting games on the schedule features two of the top three teams in the eastern conference: the Milwaukee Bucks (45-17) and the Philadelphia 76ers (40-22).

Philadelphia has the third-best record in the East, but they are coming off a disappointing 133-126 loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night. Joel Embiid (35 points), Tyrone Maxey (29 points), and James Harden (27 points) paced the Sixers’ offense. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough as Philly’s defense allowed the Mavericks to convert a season-high 25 3-pointers.

The Bucks cruise into this matchup on the heels of a 139-117 decision over the Orlando Magic on Wednesday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo led Milwaukee with 31 points and Jrue Holiday added 29 points. Thanks to 26 three-point field goals and seven players scoring in double figures, the Magic were no match for the Bucks.

Can Philly get back on track with a win against the league’s top team or will the Bucks continue to roll? Let’s dive into this matchup to find out.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Season Trends

Although Joel Embiid is putting together another MVP-caliber season (33.0 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.6 blocks per outing), the Sixers find themselves amid a mini-slump, as they have dropped three of their previous 4 games.

While Philly is a middle-of-the-pack team from a scoring standpoint (ranked 16th), they are a top-10 team in scoring defense (3rd) and defensive rating (8th). If the Sixers hope to right the ship, they will need a much better performance than what we saw against Dallas.

Meanwhile, the Bucks are on an absolute tear right now. Following a 114-102 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Jan. 21, Milwaukee has rattled off 16 consecutive victories since then. And their 22-point win over Orlando was the team’s fourth double-digit win in its last five games.

Like the Sixers, Milwaukee is average from an offensive standpoint (11th in scoring and 16th in efficiency). But it's a different narrative at the other end of the court.

Milwaukee is ranked 5th in scoring defense (111.2 PPG) and it has the second-best defensive rating in the league (110.1 points per 100 possessions). With these trends in mind, this could be either a high-scoring affair or a contest in which points aren’t easy to come by.

The Picks

Over/Under

The initial predicted points total for this contest was 229.5. That line has moved to 229 points. Both teams are averaging a combined 229.5 points per contest.

The OVER has a 4-1 mark in Milwaukee’s last five home games.

The OVER is 6-2 in the Bucks’ last eight games when facing an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. The Sixers’ winning percentage is .645.

Lastly, the total has gone OVER 11 times in Milwaukee’s last 15 games when the opposition has a winning road record. Philly is 16-12. Simply put, bet with the OVER in this matchup.

Spread

The Bucks opened as a consensus five-point favorite. That line has moved a bit to 5.5 points. And here are a few trends to be mindful of in this matchup.

Milwaukee has an impressive 8-2 mark against the spread in its last 10 games. The Bucks have an identical 8-2 record ATS after scoring over 100 points in their previous outing. Milwaukee scored 139 points against Orlando.

The Bucks have a 7-2 record ATS in their last nine games when their opposition has allowed more than 100 points in their previous contest. Dallas scored 133 points on Thursday night.

Milwaukee holds a 4-1 record ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams at FiServ Forum. Additionally, the Bucks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings against the Sixers. With the said being said, go with the Bucks for the win and to cover the 5.5-point spread.

Player Prop Bet

My player to watch from this matchup is none other than Giannis Antetokounmpo. He currently has -120 odds of scoring over 31.5 points.

In 30 games against the Sixers, Giannis is scoring an average of 23.9 points per contest, which is considerably lower than the 31.5 total. However, Antetokounmpo scored 30-plus points in five of his seven outings before the All-Star break. And he scored 33 and 31 points in each of his last two outings. With that being said, look for Giannis to exceed the predicted 31.5 points.

Sixers vs. Bucks Expert Pick – March 4, 2023