San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Expert Pick – February 11, 2024
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS EXPERT PICK – FEBRUARY 11, 2024 – Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our weekly NFL coverage at Godzilla Wins.
In what will be the final game of the 2023 season, the San Francisco 49ers (14-5 SU, 9-10 ATS) will take on the Kansas City Chiefs (14-6 SU, 12-7-1 ATS) to determine who will become the next champion. Can Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs win their third title in five years, or will the Niners clinch their first title since the 1994 season?
Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024
Time: 6:30 PM ET
Where: Allegiant Stadium
Location: Paradise, NV
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds
San Francisco 49ers
(14-5 SU, 9-10 ATS)
Kansas City Chiefs
(14-6 SU, 12-7-1 ATS)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Will The Niners Avenge Their Super Bowl Loss To The Chiefs Four Years Ago?
The Niners finished the regular season with the best record in the NFC. However, their postseason journey has been anything but easy. In the divisional round matchup against the Green Bay Packers, they needed a scoring drive to pull out a 24-21 against the youngest team in the postseason.
In their third straight appearance in the conference championship game, the Niners found themselves trailing by a 24-7 margin at intermission. It seemed inevitable that the Lions were on their way to the franchise’s first-ever Super Bowl.
However, San Francisco put up 17 straight points in the third quarter to tie the game at 24 before eventually pulling away for a 34-31 victory. Brock Purdy finished 20-for-31 with 267 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception. He also added 48 rushing yards on five carries.
“No one was rah-rah,” Purdy said, via ESPN. “No one was freaking out. It’s football. There’s a lot of experienced guys on this team, veteran guys who have been in crazy situations. We were just like, ‘We have to do our job.’”
In producing a pair of come-from-behind victories, the Niners have proven that no lead is safe. However, if they spot the defending champions with a large lead, the outcome WILL be different.
Kansas City Chiefs Looking To Become The First Team To Repeat Since 2003-04 Patriots
On the other side of this matchup, the defending champions had an up-and-down season, but it has been a different story in the playoffs. After dispatching the Miami Dolphins to the tune of 26-7 in the wild-card round, the Chiefs traveled to Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
There were questions about how Mahomes and Co. would fare in the first road playoff game of his career.
No home-field advantage, no problem.
Kansas City squeaked out a 27-24 win to advance to its sixth straight AFC title game. Let that sink in for a moment. Mahomes has been in the league for seven years and has already played in six conference championship games.
In past seasons, the Chiefs relied upon their offense to win games. But against the Baltimore Ravens, the defense stepped up big time, holding the team that had the best record in the league to just a field goal in the second half.
Make no mistake, San Francisco has multiple players that create matchup problems for opposing defenses. At the same token, it should be mentioned that Kanas City has faced three top-six offenses in these playoffs and has held those teams to just 13.7 points per contest.
With that stat in mind, should this unit produce another solid performance, Kansas City will more than likely win this one, albeit by a slim margin.
Now that we have provided the backdrop for this Super Bowl matchup, here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread.
The Niners opened as a 2.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to two points.
- The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
- In their last seven matchups against Kansas City, San Francisco is 1-6 against the spread.
- The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road contests.
- However, that number changes to 0-6 ATS when playing on the road against the defending champions.
- Meanwhile, the Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last five outings.
- KC is 5-1 ATS in its last six matchups against NFC West Division opponents.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (+2)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Over/Under
The projected over/under total opened at 50.5 points, and that line has not moved. Here is a look at why going with the “over” is the smart play here.
The projected over/under total for this matchup is 47.5 points. Here is a look at why you should go with the “under.”
- The total has gone UNDER five times in the Niners’ last seven matchups against AFC West opponents.
- In the Chiefs’ last six outings, the UNDER total has won five times.
- The UNDER total is 4-2 in the last six times KC played as the underdog.
Prediction: UNDER 47.5 points
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Bets
Usually, I do one-player prop bets, sometimes even two. However, since this is the last and biggest game of the NFL season, we are going to take a deep dive into a pair of prop bets for each respective team.
One of the players to watch for the Niners is Brock Purdy. He has often been referred to as a “game manager.” However, his stats prove the exact opposite. He finished fifth in passing yards (4,280) and fourth in completion percentage (69.5).
Additionally, Purdy finished sixth in passing yards per game and third in passing touchdowns. If this dude is a game manager, I would take him as my starting quarterback any day of the week.
Purdy currently has -120 odds of throwing for more than 247.5 yards and -110 odds of finishing with less than 247.5 yards. Here is a quick look at why going with the “over” for Purdy would be the best choice.
- In 16 starts during the regular season, Purdy averaged 267.5 passing yards per contest.
- San Francisco won 12 games during the season. Purdy averaged 271.9 yards per game in those games compared to just 254.3 yards in the team’s four losses.
- In five matchups against AFC opponents, he averaged 252.2 passing yards per outing.
- Purdy finished with 519 yards against the Packers and Lions. That averages out to 259.5 YPG.
Prediction: Brock Purdy OVER 247.5 passing yards
The second Niners player I want to focus on is Christian McCaffrey. He currently has +450 odds of finishing with more than 130 total yards. There are two reasons why I think he will exceed the estimated yards total for this matchup.
First, McCaffrey is averaging 130 total yards in the Niners’ wins over the Packers and Lions. Second, McCaffrey has produced 10 such outings this season, including the playoffs.
Prediction: Christian McCaffrey OVER 130 total yards
The first player Chiefs we will look at is none other than Patrick Mahomes. He currently has -650 odds of finishing with more than 200 passing yards. Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against this estimated total.
- In three career games against San Francisco, Mahomes has amassed 1,023 yards. That averages out to 341 yards per contest.
- Mahomes averaged 261.4 yards per game in 16 starts during the regular season.
- In the Chiefs’ three playoff games, he is averaging 239.3 yards per outing.
- Kansas City has played against NFC opponents five times this season. In those games, Mahomes is averaging 241 YPG.
- Lastly, Mahomes has exceeded the 200 yards passing total nine times across his last 10 outings.
Prediction: Patrick Mahomes OVER 200 passing yards
The second player for the Chiefs to keep an eye on is Travis Kelce. He currently has -185 odds of finishing with 60+ reception yards. Here are some trends that suggest why going with the “over” for Kelce is the best play in this matchup.
- In 4 career games against the Niners, Kelce has accumulated 270 yards. That averages out to 67.5 YPG.
- During the regular season (15 starts), Kelce averaged 65.6 yards per outing.
- In four matchups against NFC opponents, the All-Pro tight end has averaged 65.3 YPG.
- Over his last 10 outings, Kelce has averaged 63.9 YPG, exceeding the total yards for this matchup six times during that stretch.
Prediction: Travis Kelce OVER 60 reception yards
James’s Niners vs. Chiefs Picks
Spread: Chiefs (+2)
Over/Under: UNDER 47.5 points
Player Prop Bet#1: Brock Purdy OVER 247.5 passing yards
PPB #2: Christian McCaffrey OVER 130 total yards
Player Prop #3: Patrick Mahomes OVER 200 passing yards
PPB #4: Travis Kelce OVER 70 reception yards