San Antonio Spurs vs. Milwaukee Bucks Expert Pick – December 19, 2023

SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS.  MILWAUKEE BUCKS EXPERT PICK – DECEMBER 19, 2023 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of the games on tap from Tuesday night’s slate features the San Antonio Spurs (4-21 SU, 10-15 ATS) taking on the Milwaukee Bucks (19-7 SU, 12-14 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET

Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin

 

San Antonio Spurs vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
San Antonio Spurs (4-21 SU, 10-15 ATS)	+14	+16.5	O249	+850
Milwaukee Bucks (19-7 SU, 12-14 ATS)	U247	-16.5	U249	-1450

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

San Antonio Spurs vs. Milwaukee Bucks — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

San Antonio Spurs Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 110.6 PPG – 26^th
• Offensive Efficiency: 107.4 points per 100 possessions – 29^th
• Scoring Defense: 122.2 PPG – 27^th
• Defensive Efficiency: 118.7 points per 100 possessions – 24^th

The Spurs Are Having A Bad Season

The Spurs come into this matchup having dropped nine of their previous 10 contests. This includes a 146-110 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday night.

Victor Wembanyama scored a team-high 17 points, pulled down 13 rebounds, and handed out four assists in that contest. Julian Champagnie added 15 points off the bench, and he shot 5-for-6 from beyond the arc.

With their latest loss, the Spurs have the worst record in the Western Conference and the third-worst record in the league.

The Milwaukee Bucks Are Clicking Offensively

Milwaukee Bucks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 124.4 PPG – 2^nd
• Offensive Efficiency: 121.4 points per 100 possessions – 3^rd
• Scoring Defense: 119.2 PPG – 23^rd  
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.3 points per 100 possessions –21^st

On the other side of this matchup, the Bucks have gone 8-2 across their last 10 outings and they are riding a four-game winning streak into this tilt with the Spurs. In their recent outing, The Bucks defeated the Houston Rockets 128-119.

Damian Lillard paced Milwaukee’s scoring attack with 39 points, 11 assists, five rebounds, and three steals. Giannis Antetokounmpo tallied 26 points and 17 rebounds, while Brook Lopez added 18 points and six rebounds.

Despite the team’s shortcomings at the defensive end of the floor, Milwaukee has the second-highest conversion rate in the league at 50.3 percent. On top of that, the Bucks are ranked third in 3-point shooting, converting 38.3 percent of their attempts.

Now, let us take a deep dive into the all-important betting trends for both sides.

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The Spread

The Milwaukee Bucks opened as a consensus 14-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 16.5. Here are a few reasons why going with the Bucks to cover is the best option.

• The Spurs are just 7-13 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
• San Antonio is 2-5 ATS in their last seven matchups against Central Division opponents.
• The Bucks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
• Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games it has played in December.
• The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six Tuesday games.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks (-16.5)

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Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 247 points. The line has moved to 249 points. If you are not sure which way to go, here are a few trends that suggest why going with the “over” is the best bet.

• The total has gone OVER four times in the Spurs’ last five games.
• In San Antonio’s last six matchups against Eastern Conference opponents, the OVER total hit all six times.
• The OVER total has prevailed 11 times in San Antonio’s last 14 games.
• The OVER total has cashed in eight times in the Bucks’ last nine outings.
• In the last 11 meetings between these teams, the OVER total won out eight times.
• In the Bucks’ last six contests against Western Conference teams, the OVER total hit four times.
• The OVER total hit six times in Milwaukee’s last seven matchups against Southwest Division opponents.

Prediction: OVER 249 points

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Player Prop Bets

Victor Wembanyama has been ruled out of Tuesday’s matchup against the Bucks. With that in mind, my key player to watch for San Antonio is Devin Hassell. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and -125 odds of finishing with less than 20.5 points.

• On the season, Vassell is averaging 18.3 points per contest.
• In 10 road games, he is averaging 15.8 PPG.
• Vassell has played four times against Eastern Conference teams. He is averaging 13.5 points per outing.
• During December (seven games), he is averaging 17.6 points per contest.
• In the two instances in which he has played on a Tuesday, Vassell is averaging 15 PPG.
• Over his last 10 games, Vassell is averaging 19.1 PPG.

Based on the trends, taking the “under” for Vassell looks like the safest bet to make.

Prediction: Devin Vassell UNDER 20.5 points

My key player for the Bucks is none other than Giannis Antetokounmpo. He currently has -145 odds of scoring more than 32.5 points and +114 of scoring less than 32.5 points.

• On the season, Antetokounmpo is averaging 31.4 points per contest.
• In 16 home games, he is averaging 31.6 PPG.
• Antetokounmpo has played three times against Western Conference teams. He is averaging 33 points per outing.
• In December (seven games), he is averaging 35.4 points per contest.
• In the two instances in which he has played on a Tuesday, Antetokounmpo is averaging 34 PPG.
• Over his last 10 games, Antetokounmpo is averaging 34 points per contest.

Based on the above trends, taking the “over” for Antetokounmpo is the wise choice here.

Prediction: Giannis Antetokoumpo OVER 32.5 points

 

James’s Spurs vs. Bucks Picks

Spread: Bucks (-16.5) Over/Under: OVER 249 points PPB #1: Devin Vassell Under 20.5 points PPB #2: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 32.5 points