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Ravens at Buccaneers: Expert Picks and Predictions

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) (o/u 46.5)

All odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 8:00 am EST on 10/27.

WhenThursday, October 27th, 8:15 pm EST
WhereRaymond James Stadium

Tampa, FL

How to WatchAmazon Prime

Out for Blood

Your harried cabal of frightening degenerates has coalesced around this very spooky Thursday Night Football game as we draw nearer All Hallows Eve. Will the Ravens shake the fourth quarter ghosts that have haunted them all season? Will the Bucs rise from the grave after last week’s drubbing against the Panthers? Is Tom Brady made of slime? Does John Harbaugh go for it on fourth down when he’s trick-or-treating? Find out this and more in our expert analysis below!

The Standings

Thru Week 7 RecordsWinsLossesPushWinning %
Nate3325156%
Jack3527156%
John4551345%

The Specter of TB12

Nate: It’s not totally crazy for TB12 to have a complete clunker on the road. I’ve seen this story too many times and, just as I’m ready to write him off, he comes roaring back with a vengeance.

The stat that’s getting tossed around is that he’s failed to cover as a 14+ point favorite 25 times in his career. In the game immediately after, he’s 22-3 against the spread. 

This isn’t the typical team he’s been a part of when the majority of those trends took place, but I still can’t ignore it.

The Bucs’ defense is still good and I’m willing to dismiss that Carolina game last week as an anomaly.

Ravens have been a team that is completely unable to close the door this year.

Tampa gets right in a win against Baltimore. Pick: Bucs -2.

Trick-or-Treat, Smell-My-Feet, Bucs Stink!

John: Antonio Brown is right: it’s Tampon Bay! 

This team quit like an old nag in the stretch last Sunday in the middle of Charlotte’s dumpster fire sale. Missed tackles, listless play. They don’t give a crap. Brady went from GOAT to cooked goose. I’m done. Lamar Jackson schools the old man tonight like a fifth grade book bag. Pick: Ravens +2.

Byron Leftwich’s Frankenstein Offense

Jack: It’s hard to conceive that Tom Brady has reached an age where he can’t play football anymore, but that’s what we’re seeing. The Bucs offense isn’t as miserable as people think. According to FootballOutsiders, they’re 19th in DVOA for total offense, but they’re 10th in DVOA for passing offense. This means the Bucs can’t run the ball at all. The terrible run game is either due to a lack of imagination from Byron Leftwich, a horrible offensive line, or an old quarterback who can’t keep the defense honest with his legs. 

The run game matters in the red zone, which is why the Bucs rank 27th in red zone scoring, finding the end zone on just 47% of their trips inside the twenty. Scary.

Despite the miserable performance against the lowly Panthers, the Bucs defense still remains in the top 5 in total DVOA for defense. They are slightly worse against the run, but the Bucs have an elite pass defense that can frustrate a quarterback for four quarters.

The Ravens are coming off a tough inter-divisional game against the Browns last Sunday. The line seems fishy, considering how poorly the Bucs played las week, but I think this is situation where Vegas is trying to bait dumb zombie into taking the Ravens. The line was -1 yesterday and it moved to -2, even though about a quarter of the bets are on the Bucs. Big money moves lines, so the pros seem to like the Buccaneers. Fade the public. Stick with the pros. Pick: Bucs -2.

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