Premier League Picks: Matchweek 21
PREMIER LEAGUE PICKS: MATCHWEEK 21 –The next round of Premier League action gets underway this weekend. Let’s take a look at some of the key fixtures.
Let’s go!
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Leicester City (14th) vs Brighton & Hove Albion (7th)
Date: Saturday, 01/21/2023 at 10:00 AM EST
Pitch: Leicester City – King Power Stadium, Leicester, England
Current PL Form: | Leicester City (WLLLL) | Brighton & Hove Albion (LWLWW) |
Last PL Match: | Nottingham Forest 2 -0 Leicester City | | Brighton 3 -0 Liverpool |
Head to Head
| Brighton | 5-2 | Leicester City | 09/04/2022 | Premier League |
| Leicester City | 1-1 | Brighton | 01/23/2022 | Premier League |
| Leicester City | 2-2 | Brighton | 10/27/2021 | Carabao Cup |
| Brighton | 2-1 | Leicester City | 09/19/2021 | Premier League |
| Brighton | 1-2 | Leicester City | 03/06/2021 | Premier League |
Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +240 | TIE: +260 | AWAY: +105 |
Prop Bet: | Both teams to Score (-150) |Â
Leicester City are in desperate need of points at the moment, and that is why I think they will go all out in this game. They have scored 9 goals in 9 home games and they netted 2 against Brighton earlier this season.Â
Leicester’s defense is a bit shaky right now, and Brighton have been in excellent form. I think Leicester will lose this game, but with the support of their home crowd, I think they’ll manage to put at least 1 in the back of the net.
Tips
- Leicester City have lost 4 straight Premier League games.
- Leicester City have given up the 4th most goals in the PL and are ranked 10th in goals for.
- Brighton are ranked 4th in goals for and have managed a +10 goal differential thus far.
- Brighton have scored 13 goals in their previous 5 Premier League matches.Â
- Brighton have performed well when away this season and are currently 5W-1D-3L in away games.
The Word
With a win this weekend, Brighton have a chance to break into the top 5, which is why I think they will give everything they’ve got to get a win against a struggling Leicester team. Leicester are also desperate for points, so they will make things interesting, but in the end it won’t be enough.
PREDICTION: LEICESTER CITY 1 – 3Â BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION
Crystal Palace (12th) vs Newcastle United (4th)Â
Date: Saturday, 01/21/2023 at 12:30 PM EST
Pitch: Crystal Palace – Selhurst Park, London, England
Current PL Form: | Crystal Palace (LWLLD) | Newcastle United (WWDDW) |
Last PL Match: | Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Manchester United | | Newcastle 1 – 0 Fulham |
Head to Head
| Newcastle | 0-0 | Crystal Palace | 11/09/2022 | Carabao Cup |
| Newcastle | 0-0 | Crystal Palace | 09/03/2022 | Premier League |
| Newcastle | 1-0 | Crystal Palace | 04/20/2022 | Premier League |
| Crystal Palace | 1-1 | Newcastle | 10/23/2021 | Premier League |
| Newcastle | 1-2 | Crystal Palace | 02/02/2021 | Premier League |
Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +330 | TIE: +250 | AWAY: -120 |
Prop Bet: | Newcastle to win to nil (+125) |
Newcastle statistically have the best defense in the Premier League. They have allowed the fewest goals in the Premier League so far this season, having only conceded 11 goals in 19 games. To make you feel even better about the bet, they haven’t conceded a single goal in 2023, and they’re facing a Crystal Palace team that ranks 12th in scoring, with only 18 goals in 19 matches.Â
Tips
- Newcastle have held their opponent scoreless in their 5 previous Premier League matches.
- Crystal Palace are ranked 15th in goals for and have a -5 goal differential at Selhurst Park.
- Newcastle and Crystal Palace faced off 3 times in 2022, and Crystal Palace didn’t find the back of the net even once.
- Newcastle haven’t lost a game since August of 2022, and only have one loss in 19 Premier League games this season.
The Word
Considering the fact that Newcastle have only one loss so far this season, I don’t think Crystal Palace has the squad to ruin their amazing run. They’ll find a way to score and with their stout defense, I don’t see them conceding.Â
PREDICTION: CRYSTAL PALACE 0 – 2 NEWCASTLE
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Leeds United (15th) vs Brentford (8th)
Date: Sunday, 01/22/2023 at 9:00 AM EST
Pitch: Leeds United – Elland, Leeds, England
Current PL Form: | Leeds United (LLDDL) | Brentford (WDWWW) |
Last PL Match: | Aston Villa 2 – 1 Leeds United | | Brentford 2 -0 Bournemouth |
Head to Head
| Brentford | 5-2 | Leeds United | 09/03/2022 | Premier League |
| Brentford | 1-2 | Leeds United | 05/22/2022 | Premier League |
| Leeds United | 2-2 | Brentford | 12/05/2021 | Premier League |
| Brentford | 1-1 | Leeds United | 02/11/2020 | Championship |
| Leeds United | 1-0 | Brentford | 08/21/2019 | Championship |
Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +130 | TIE: +255 | AWAY: +185 |
Prop Bet: | Ivan Toney to sore anytime (+105) |
Ivan Toney is a scoring machine. He is currently the 3rd highest scorer in the Premier League and has 13 goals in 17 matches. He has recorded at least 1 goal per game in his previous 5 starts. Leeds rank 16th in goals allowed this season, so I like Toney’s chances in this one.
Tips
- Brentford have won 4 of their last 5 Premier League matches.
- Leeds are winless in their previous 5 Premier League matches.
- Brentford have won their last 3 Premier League games, with 6 different players scoring a total of 7 goals.
- I expect Brentford to win, but for both teams to get on the score sheet, and for there to be over 2.5 goals.
The Word
Leeds are in extremely poor form right now, but the last time Leeds went on a winless streak, they managed to win back-to-back games to break it. I don’t think they’ll break their current winless streak against Brentford, but I also don’t think Brentford will run away with this one. Leeds have only lost by more than 1 goal twice in their previous 12 Premier League games.
PREDICTION: LEEDS UNITED 1 – 2 BRENTFORD
Manchester City (2nd) vs Wolverhampton (16th)
Date: Sunday, 01/22/2023 at 9:00 AM EST
Pitch: Manchester City – Ethiad Stadium, Manchester, England
Current PL Form: | Manchester City (LWDWL) | Wolverhampton (LWLDW) |
Last PL Match: | Man. United 2 – 1 Man. City | | Wolverhampton 1 -0 West Ham |
Head to Head
| Wolverhampton | 0-3 | Manchester City | 09/17/2022 | Premier League |
| Wolverhampton | 1-5 | Manchester City | 05/11/2022 | Premier League |
| Manchester City | 1-0 | Wolverhampton | 12/11/2021 | Premier League |
| Manchester City | 4-1 | Wolverhampton | 03/02/2021 | Premier League |
| Wolverhampton | 1-3 | Manchester City | 09/21/2020 | Premier League |
Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: -550 | TIE: +600 | AWAY: +1200 |
Prop Bet: | Jack Grealish to score (+230) |
Yeahhhh, sure. You could bet on Haaland to score. But that would be too easy, and where’s the fun in that? It’s a little more risky, but there could be more value in betting on Jack Grealish to score. He’s in excellent form. He recently scored in the Manchester Derby, and the last time City faced off against the Wolves, Grealish got on the score sheet.
Tips
- Wolverhampton have scored the fewest goals out of any Premier League team.
- Wolverhampton recently acquired attacking midfielder Pablo Sarabia from PSG. He could have an impact in his first game at Wolverhampton.
- In the previous 5 matchups between these teams, Manchester City have managed 14 goals while only conceding 3.
- Wolverhampton only have 1 away win this season.
The Word
Wolves currently rank 10th in goals allowed this season, which isn’t too bad considering their record. Manchester City have won 5 games this season by 3 or more goals, but have seen the goals dry up a bit of late: they haven’t managed to deliver at that level in their last 10 Premier League games. I’m going with the bookies here and taking Wolves to cover the 2.5 spread. City by 2.Â
PREDICTION: MANCHESTER CITY 2 – 0 WOLVERHAMPTON
Arsenal (1st) vs Manchester United (3rd)
Date: Sunday, 01/22/2023 at 11:30 AM EST
Pitch: Arsenal – Emirates Stadium, London, England
Current Form: | Arsenal (WWWDW) | Manchester United (WWWWD) |
Last PL Match: | Tottenham 0 – 2 Arsenal | | Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Man. United |
Head to Head
| Man. United | 3-1 | Arsenal | 09/04/2022 | Premier League |
| Arsenal | 3-1 | Man. United | 04/23/2022 | Premier League |
| Man. United | 3-2 | Arsenal | 12/02/2021 | Premier League |
| Arsenal | 0-0 | Man. United | 01/30/2021 | Premier League |
| Man. United | 0-1 | Arsenal | 11/01/2020 | Premier League |
Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: -120 | TIE: +275 | AWAY: +295 |
Prop Bet: | Bruno Fernandes to score anytime (+350) |
You could win some big money here. Or lose. But that’s what makes betting fun. Bruno Fernandes seems to have found his stride recently, and is doing very well at the moment. He has managed to find the back of the net in his last two Premier League starts. Manchester United will be without Casemiro, so this could be Bruno’s time to shine.Â
Tips
- Manchester United handed Arsenal their only loss this season.
- Manchester United haven’t lost a game in their previous 6 Premier League matches.
- Arsenal rank 2nd in goals for this season, and have also conceded the second least amount of goals in the Premier League.
The Word
Manchester United managed to beat Arsenal pretty comfortably earlier this season, but Arsenal have recovered well from that loss and it remains their only loss this season.
If Casemiro were playing, my thought process on this game might be a little different. Without him, though, I don’t see Manchester United’s midfield being able to keep up with the young talent of Arsenal.
I’m backing Arsenal in this one, but I also don’t think you’d be crazy to bet on a draw, as in my opinion both teams would be happy splitting points here.
PREDICTION: ARSENAL 2 – 1 MANCHESTER UNITED
Fulham (6th) vs Tottenham Hotspur (5th)
Date: Monday, 01/23/2023 at 3:00 PM EST
Pitch: Fulham – Craven Cottage, London, England
Current PL Form: | Fulham (WWWWL) | Tottenham Hotspur (WDLWL) |
Last PL Match: | Newcastle United 1 – 0 Fulham | | Tottenham 0 – 2 Arsenal |
Head to Head
| Tottenham | 2-1 | Fulham | 09/03/2022 | Premier League |
| Fulham | 0-1 | Tottenham | 03/04/2021 | Premier League |
| Tottenham | 1-1 | Fulham | 01/13/2021 | Premier League |
| Fulham | 1-2 | Tottenham | 01/20/2019 | Premier League |
| Tottenham | 3-1 | Fulham | 08/18/2018 | Premier League |
Draft Kings Moneyline Odds: | HOME: +215 | TIE: +275 | AWAY: +110 |
Prop Bet: | Aleksandar Mitrovic to score anytime (+110) |Â
Aleksandar Mitrovic has had great success against this particular team. In his career vs. Tottenham, he’s managed to score 4 goals and assist 2 more, earning him the impressive distinction of being involved in more goals against them than any other opponent in the Premier League.
Tips
- Tottenham have allowed 2 or more goals in 11 of their 20 Premier League games this season.Â
- Fulham have not beaten Tottenham in their previous 8 meetings.
- Despite being 5th in the Premier League table, Tottenham have given up the 6th most goals in the league.
- Fulham have won 4 of their last 5 Premier League matches.
- Tottenham have managed only 1 win in their previous 5 Premier League matches.
The WordÂ
Both Fulham and Tottenham know how to put the ball in the back of the net, but they also both really like to concede goals as well. This should make for an interesting matchup. Both of these teams are statistically very even. I honestly don’t see Fulham getting a win here, but with the game being at Craven Cottage, I’m going with the draw (+275) and over 3.5 (+170).
PREDICTION: FULHAM 2 – 2 TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
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