Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Expert Pick

PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS EXPERT PICK – As the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) prepare to face off against the Cleveland Browns (6-3) in a pivotal matchup, the echoes of history resonate on the field.

With both teams eyeing playoff contention, this week’s clash is not just a game; it’s a potential battle for supremacy in the rugged terrain of the AFC North.

The Odds

Matchup	Open	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS)	+4.5	+2	O33	+100
Cleveland Browns (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS)	O/U 38.5	-2	U33	-123

Kickoff

When: Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET

Where: Cleveland Browns Stadium

TV: CBS

Bulletin Board Material

The Browns media has labeled this a revenge game after running back Nick Chubb was lost for the season after a low tackle by safety Minkah Fitzpatrick’s in their first matchup.

While most players and league officials agree that it was not a dirty play, it is undoubtedly being used as motivation in Cleveland. Make no mistake about it, these teams hate each other.

With the Baltimore Ravens rivalry there is a sense of respect among the Steelers faithful because of their past success. The Browns don’t garner the same appreciation from the Steelers organization, and they know it. After being dominated for almost 20 years they suffer from little brother complex syndrome. Despite beating the Steelers in the playoffs in 2021 they haven’t won the division since the collapse of the Berlin Wall.

Both teams understand that a loss this week will place them in the muddled wild card payoff field with a division title all but gone. The talented Browns smell blood in the water as the days of Ben Roethlisberger, who amassed an astounding 26-2-1 record against them, are long gone. 

Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust

The game this week has the makings of a good old-fashioned slugfest. With Deshaun Watson surprisingly out for the season with a shoulder injury, the Browns will hand the reigns to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) giving him his first start.

This may feel like a major advantage for the Steelers, but Watson hasn’t played great and was a game manager this season. In five of Cleveland’s six wins, they have over 100 yards rushing, in four of those games the total is over 150 yards.

The formula for success doesn’t change with DTR under center. The Steelers’ run defense is not a strength as they allow 4.5 yards per attempt and are prone to give up the big play.

Scoring will be at a premium as the over/under is currently 33 points. The Steelers will rely on a resurgent running game as they rushed for 205 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Green Bay Packers.

Jaylen Warren earned his first start last week and rookie tackle Broderick Jones cemented his starting job on the right side with a dominating performance. The Browns are mediocre against the run allowing four yards per carry on the season. 

T.J. Watt vs. Myles Garrett

The best players for both teams are the two fantastic edge rushers both vying for Defensive Player of the Year. The chatter about T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett between the two fan bases can get downright nasty.

This was further fueled after the first game this season that saw Watt and the defense force two scoring turnovers and dominate the game. Garrett only had one tackle but the folks at Pro Football Focus ranked him drastically higher than Watt citing their infamous Pass Rush Win Rate statistic. The fact Watt scored a touchdown and was ranked lower is proof that the stat geeks at PFF need to tweak their systems. 

The Browns offensive line is banged up with starters Dawand Jones and Michael Dunn listed as questionable. The Steelers offensive line is healthy and looking to piggyback from their two recent dominant performances.

The Pick

This is going to be an ugly game as both teams look for ways not to lose. The Steelers major in games like this and will not let their little brother punch them in the mouth. The Steelers will win this game 16-10. Jaylen Warren will find a way to rush for another 100 yards in his second career start.

Mitch’s Picks

Steelers   +1.5 RB Jaylen Warren – Rushing Prop – O 38.5