PGA Tour: Wyndham Championship Expert Outright Picks
PGA TOUR: WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP EXPERT OUTRIGHT PICKS – We made it! We made it all the way to the end of the PGA Tour regular season, as we head into the final tournament of the season before the FedEx Cup Playoff begins.
The field this week has a little bit of everything. We have big name players like Hideki, looking to secure enough points to get into the top 50, thus securing two weeks of golf postseason. Big names like Justin Thomas and Shane Lowry who are looking to get into the top-70 in season-long points and secure any spot moving forward in the playoffs. And all of the usual suspects we’d expect for this tournament who generally just play a lot (looking at you, Sungjae), or guys who are hovering between 75-150th on the points standings and want to do a little bit more to secure or gain Tour status for next season.
Sedgefield Country Club is a Donald Ross design and is fairly standard as far as shorter courses go on Tour. The rough won’t be overly penal, but the guys who tend to have the most success at this short par 70 tend to be on the more accurate side.
Players will need to go low here to have a chance at holding the hardware on Sunday. The typical winning formula around this track is solid mid-iron, short-iron and wedge play, along with a putter that catches fire on these bermuda greens. This course favors guys who don’t wow with their ability off the tee, but tend to do everything else well. Past winners have been Kevin Kisner, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, and J.T. Poston to name a few. All of those guys can broadly be put in the same category of players who tend to excel at shorter courses where precision is prized over power. That’s what we’ll be looking for here.
We took a week off from our podcast, Clubhouse Picks, as we gear up for the PGA postseason and line up some special guests. So, you’re stuck with my picks for this week. Let’s get to it.
These are the guys who are at the top of the leaderboard, usually at +2000 or better. They are the favorites for a reason, and though we don’t always bet them, these are our favorite bets from the top of the board.
Si Woo Kim (+2200)
It’s pretty funky towards the top of the odds board this week. Mainly because there are some bigger names in dubious form in what is an otherwise pretty standard field. Mostly these are guys battling to secure status of some kind, whether it’s locking in a top-70 to make the field for next week, or to stay — or get into — the top-125 to receive full status for next season. As such, there are only two players with better odds than Si Woo, and neither of them are options I prefer over my guy.
Si Woo hasn’t played awesome lately. He’s missed the cut in his last two tournaments after a pretty good stretch of golf in May and June. Form tends to be fairly irrelevant when analyzing Si Woo, and this is much of a bet on course fit as anything. The bottom line is this: he plays incredible here. He’s notched four top-5 finishes since 2016, including a win. It’s clear he enjoys playing here, and I’m willing to bet he goes out and plays well here again. His game aligns for this type of course. It’s not crazy to think that Si Woo could add another win this season in what might be the best season of his career.
I’m not going to get caught up in recent form. He played well at the Open on Thursday before totally imploding on Friday. I don’t think he implodes at Sedgefield. I don’t usually bet favorites, but I’m all over Si Woo this week.
Our reliable players. You can usually find these heroes in the 20/1-80/1 range. They’re reliable and often a good bet for top-5, top-10, or top-20 props if you’re not feeling especially frisky.
J.T. Poston (+3500)
I was kicking myself last week for not grabbing a player I tend to gravitate towards on shorter courses, when he was in the hunt last week. I won’t make that mistake again. The Postman already has a win on this course, and this is something of a home game for the North Carolina native. In his last four tournaments, he’s made every cut while sprinkling in two T6 finishes, alongside a T2 last week (which, really, should’ve been a solo 2nd). He went bogey-free here en route to his win in 2019, so there’s no doubt he can excel around here.
This is a good time to bet on form, course history, and playing style as they are all coming together nicely for Poston. The price is pretty solid for a guy who has flashed the best form in this field over the last month or so.
We bet on these guys all the time and they never seem to actually win. Nevertheless, we’re enamored with what they bring to the table and will ride with them for as long as it takes.
Cam Davis (+4500)
I’ve talked about how Cam Davis sort of disrupts my handicapping on these shorter courses. On paper, he looks like a guy who would excel on a more bomber-friendly venue. He defies traditional logic when it comes to handicapping, however, because he tends to play better on shorter, precision golf courses, despite the biggest weapon in his bag being the driver.
He’s -27 in eight rounds at this track, and he’s notched a win on a Donald Ross design at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2021. This course and style of play — for whatever reason — seems to suit him. He hasn’t finished outside the top-25 in two appearances here, so maybe he can break through and win this week.
Bet regret. We fired off these bets in the heat of the moment, then we pondered them a little while longer. Now we’re wondering if that money would’ve been better spent on literally anything else.
Alex Noren (+6500)
I haven’t talked much about Alex Noren this season, but he’s long been a favorite of mine as a player. This is probably a little bit of an emotional bet because all it takes is the slightest glimmer of hope for me to hop back on the Noren bandwagon, and he gave me the briefest glimpse with his play lately.
He’s coming off a T13 last week at the 3M, and a T23 at the Open Championship. He’s clearly starting to figure some things out with his game after a pretty tough season that has him at 102nd in the FedEx Cup standings. He clearly needs something big to happen in a hurry, but this is probably a big ask for someone who hasn’t been in serious contention since November of last year.
He’s not going to be as much of a factor on longer courses because that simply isn’t his game. His elite short game and putting travel everywhere though and the approach numbers were pretty solid last week. I’m all over him, but I’m sick and can’t help myself. Tread lightly if you decide to follow my lead.
The Hybrid (Garrick Higgo, Kevin Yu)
This is our fun long shot that could make us all rich. Or not. It’s tough to hit these, but it’s a damn good time sweating them if they’re in contention. Tread lightly on these guys, but sometimes miracles happen.
Garrick Higgo (+8000)
Another week, another long shot bet on Garrick Higgo. He was on my card in this exact spot last week, and I don’t see any reason to move off of him, yet. He typically profiles as a bomber, but he’s been making strides with the accuracy in ways that make him tougher to pigeonhole these days.
Players will need to go low in this tournament, and Higgo isn’t afraid to go deep if he’s feeling it. He’s been in the top-25 in his last three events, including a T13 last week at the 3M. He gained strokes across the board last week (although only by the thinnest of margins off the tee), so it seems like things are coming together for him as the season winds down. He’s 72nd in the points standings, so there should be added focus to try and play his way into next week’s field for the top-70 players in the season standings.
I was on him last week at +6000, and I didn’t see anything that will dissuade me this week from taking him at the better price of +8000.